1000 Tix Challenge - part 1

As I've written in my first post on this blog, new decks are great opportunities for profit. I've mentioned netdecking successful decks, but there is one more flavour to it - creating your own decks and mass-buying key parts of the deck. And this is what inspired my first buy of 1000 Tix Challenge. Introducing... Dredgeooze!

4 Misty Rainforest

4 Scalding Tarn

4 Verdant Catacombs

2 Drowned Catacomb

6 Forest

2 Island

2 Swamp

4 Birds of Paradise

4 Enclave Cryptologist

4 Hedron Crab

4 Lotus Cobra

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Renegade Doppelganger

4 Vengevine

4 Necrotic Ooze

4 Gigantomancer

This deck is a variation of Dredgevine that uses a new Scars of Mirrodin card - Necrotic Ooze. If you haven't seen it already, here it is:

Necrotic Ooze 2BB

Creature - Ooze

As long as Necrotic Ooze is on the battlefield, it has all activated abilities of all creature cards in all graveyards.

"To death all must go, and so in death lies ultimate power."

-Geth, Lord of the Vault

Illus. James Ryman #72/249
4/3

Begs to be broken, doesn't it? Well, here is my attempt to doing just that: Gigantomancer. Of course it has to find it's way into your graveyard, that's why I've decided to adopt the Dredgevine core. Ooze + Gigantomancer feels a lot like Sovereigns of Lost Alara + Eldrazi Conscription - turns your weenies into superheroes. There are some things you can change, like swapping Enclave Cryptologists for River Boas to make your Ooze even more awesome. Another consideration is the new Molten-Tail Masticore:

Molten-Tail Masticore 4

Artifact Creature - Masticore

At the beginning of your upkeep, sacrifice Molten-Tail Masticore unless you discard a card.

4, Exile a creature card from your graveyard: Molten-Tail Masticore deals 4 damage to target creature or player.

2: Regenerate Molten-Tail Masticore.

Illus. Whit Brachna #177/249
4/4

Whatever this deck turns into, I'm sure Ooze + Gigantomancer is going to be great. So sure, that I'm going to put my money on it.

Yup, that's 105 Gigantomancers you're seeing, all bought for 9 tix. I didn't record all the trades, as there were quite a lot of them, but I now have 0.35 tix credit at SharpBot. I can easily see Gigantomacer going for 2 tix once this deck hits. I recommend buying them while they're still cheap.

Cashing in on Steel Overseers

The more spoilers of Scars of Mirrodin I'm seeing, the less I'm confident that Steel Overseer is going to see play. It's best suited for artifact aggro decks and those will most probably be Myr decks. They will already run Myr Galvanizer and Tempered Steel as mass pump effects and I don't think Steel Overseer will find it's place there. And this means one thing - time to sell! Steel Overseer can be sold easily at 2.25 tix, which is a very good profit from the 0.60 tix it was when I recommended buying.

Someone asked me about Hoarding Dragon - I think it's useless. 5 mana for a 4/4 flying creature is not impressive these days and the tutor effect is unreliable - Unsummon, Journey to Nowhere and Condemn all mean the tutored artifact stays exiled forever.

1000 Tix Challenge - intro

Sometimes I find myself wondering: if I am as good at identifying profit opportunities as I think I am, why do I still have so few tix on my account? Sure, I have gone infinite in the sense that I don't have to pay for the game and my balance is more or less stable, even though I keep losing tix on new deck creations and failed drafts. I guess there are two reasons:
-I'm not focused enough. A few days ago I've seen the Mindslaver get spoiled mere minutes after it has gone public. I've checked the price to see it being available at 0.5 tix. I was sure it was going to go up, had 40 tix at hand, but decided against buying. Why? Because I felt sleepy. It wasn't even particularly late, but tiredness got the best of me. I woke up next day to see Mindslaver being bought at 2 tix. That was 20 minutes of sleep that cost me some 120 tix. It happens :)
-I spend quite a lot. New decks and limited are the main spendings. I'm not really competitive, but I tend to spend all my tix and none are left for investments.

A day after Mindslaver got spoiled my friend came up with an idea: "You should hold a challenge on your blog - start with 50 tix and get to 1000 as fast as you can." I must say I loved the idea. This is something to keep me focused, and if I keep track of tix earned, I won't be tempted to spend them. I created a new account, and here's it's current status:


50 tix, and some untradable stuff. I also have some 0.5 tix at one of the bot chains after selling stuff from the intro pack. And that's it. Current balance: 50 tix. Target: 1000 tix. 1900% profit. I feel like I can make it within a year. Wish me luck!

Kiss your phylactery goodbye

Phylactery Lich has gone up to 1.75 at major bots, and I feel that's enough. You may only get 1.25 tix when selling, which is 40% profit if you bought at 0.90, but I don't think you will get much more of this card. I don't believe there's a deck out there that is going to make Phylactery Lich a star - it's price boost is pure hype and it will die out soon. You can see it already when you search for the Lich on classifieds - nearly nobody is buying the card, and there are a lot of sell offers. This is a good time to get off the boat before it starts to sink. And it should sink soon.

Scars of Mirrodin - Phylactery Lich has a new friend

Or a new phylactery for that matter. I've written about this in M11 analysis - darksteel is making a return in Scars of Mirrodin in the form of Darksteel Axe. Now we know it's an indestructible Bonesplitter - and it looks tailored for the Lich. As I'm writing this Phylactery Lich can be bought at 0.9 tix and I expect it to raise to 2 tix in a few days time, and maybe further once more cards are spoiled.

While we are at SoM spoilers and price movements that they're causing - Steel Overseer is no longer a good buy, selling at 2 tix. I'd wait a bit with selling it as an artifact aggro deck is very likely to appear with Metalcraft being the new Affinity. Steel Overseer is going to be available in Elspeth vs Tezzeret, but I don't think it will have enough of an effect to make it buyable again.

Keep an eye on the spoilers and have some tix at hand - I know I sure will, and if I see any new opportunities you'll be able to read about them here.

M11 Investment Analysis

It's 2 weeks since M11 has been released on MTGO. Today I'd like to write about cards that I see as having potential to rise, and some cards that people on the forums are expecting to rise, but I don't agree with them.

Primeval Titan - the Baneslayer Angel of M11, the most expensive card of the set. It has dropped as low as $30 at one point, and kept gaining value since. Right now it's at $38, and I expect it to raise further to about $45 - $50 to meet it's paper price due to redemption. This DOESN'T mean it's a good investment though - if you're going to play the card, buy it now, but the prospect of 20-30% price increase is not enough to validate investing in it. Verdict: buy to play, otherwise pass.
Grave Titan - the best Titan, as claimed by Luis Scott-Vargas among others, is the third most expensive card in the set at $9. Right now it doesn't have a home in Standard, and I'm going to risk stating that it won't have one at least until Scars of Mirrodin. Even if it was to find a home, you will still have time between the deck appearance to the price spike to buy the card. Verdict: wait for a deck to appear.
Sun Titan - right now it's only home is UW control, and it's not enough to raise the price above the $4 it is currently selling at. As a side-note: if you bought those promo Titans at a reasonable price, and haven't sold them at $3, hold them. It's a long term investment, but it should pay off, especially when Alara rotates and the demand for Zen and M11 playables goes up. Verdict: pass.
Fauna Shaman - the most powerful rare of the set, it sees play in Naya, and it sells at about $4. The card has lots of potential, and it may appear in more decks, especially after the rotation. Verdict: wait for the rotation.
Phylactery Lich - the card gets quite a lot of hype, but until recently I wasn't much of it's fan. I viewed the Lich as a 2 for 1 against you waiting to happen, especially with an artifact-heavy set just around the corner artifact hate should become more powerful, making the Lich worse. All this changed with one information: a name of a card from Scars. Darksteel Axe. Darksteel is back, and with it, indestructible artifacts should also be back. If we get a playable, 2-mana indestructible artifact, and we don't have any targeted artifact exile effects, Phylactery Lich should gain value. Verdict: wait for Scars of Mirrodin spoiler season, buy if conditions are met.
Steel Overseer - again a highly hyped card, this one actually might be the Knight of the Reliquary of M11. Sunburst is confirmed to return in Scars of Mirrodin, and it may mean a powerful synergy for the Overseer. I'm already trying to buy them at $0.50, but I may start buying higher during the spoiler season. Verdict: buy when you see them low, pay attention during the spoiler season.
Knight Exemplar - yet another highly hyped card, Vampire Nocturnus this is not. The price of $1 is pure hype, and I wouldn't touch it. The reason is pretty simple, and you might have heard the phrase before: dies to removal! Verdict: sell.
Obstinate Baloth - the Great Sable Stag of M11, the ultimate Jund-hate. Once Jund dies to rotation, it will lose a lot of it's use, and will only be played as a sideboard card against RDW, provided that RDW is a deck after the rotation, and it doesn't bring Leyline of Punishment from the board. Verdict: sell.

Those are the cards I picked for evaluation. If you feel I've missed something, feel free to ask.

M11 Prerelease finished, Pyromancer Ascension going up

M11 prerelease events are finished. Promo Sun Titans are no longer entering the market, but it's still time to buy some more. If you're into daytrading (I'm not) promo Sun Titans were great for this purpose - you could buy them at 2 tix and sell at 3 tix all day long. All M11 cards are high now and you should stay away from them unless you want to daytrade or know something I don't :).

Cardbot is selling Pyromancer Ascensions at 2,5 tix now. It may go a bit higher, but not by much - I'm selling mine now.