M11 Investment Analysis

It's 2 weeks since M11 has been released on MTGO. Today I'd like to write about cards that I see as having potential to rise, and some cards that people on the forums are expecting to rise, but I don't agree with them.

Primeval Titan - the Baneslayer Angel of M11, the most expensive card of the set. It has dropped as low as $30 at one point, and kept gaining value since. Right now it's at $38, and I expect it to raise further to about $45 - $50 to meet it's paper price due to redemption. This DOESN'T mean it's a good investment though - if you're going to play the card, buy it now, but the prospect of 20-30% price increase is not enough to validate investing in it. Verdict: buy to play, otherwise pass.
Grave Titan - the best Titan, as claimed by Luis Scott-Vargas among others, is the third most expensive card in the set at $9. Right now it doesn't have a home in Standard, and I'm going to risk stating that it won't have one at least until Scars of Mirrodin. Even if it was to find a home, you will still have time between the deck appearance to the price spike to buy the card. Verdict: wait for a deck to appear.
Sun Titan - right now it's only home is UW control, and it's not enough to raise the price above the $4 it is currently selling at. As a side-note: if you bought those promo Titans at a reasonable price, and haven't sold them at $3, hold them. It's a long term investment, but it should pay off, especially when Alara rotates and the demand for Zen and M11 playables goes up. Verdict: pass.
Fauna Shaman - the most powerful rare of the set, it sees play in Naya, and it sells at about $4. The card has lots of potential, and it may appear in more decks, especially after the rotation. Verdict: wait for the rotation.
Phylactery Lich - the card gets quite a lot of hype, but until recently I wasn't much of it's fan. I viewed the Lich as a 2 for 1 against you waiting to happen, especially with an artifact-heavy set just around the corner artifact hate should become more powerful, making the Lich worse. All this changed with one information: a name of a card from Scars. Darksteel Axe. Darksteel is back, and with it, indestructible artifacts should also be back. If we get a playable, 2-mana indestructible artifact, and we don't have any targeted artifact exile effects, Phylactery Lich should gain value. Verdict: wait for Scars of Mirrodin spoiler season, buy if conditions are met.
Steel Overseer - again a highly hyped card, this one actually might be the Knight of the Reliquary of M11. Sunburst is confirmed to return in Scars of Mirrodin, and it may mean a powerful synergy for the Overseer. I'm already trying to buy them at $0.50, but I may start buying higher during the spoiler season. Verdict: buy when you see them low, pay attention during the spoiler season.
Knight Exemplar - yet another highly hyped card, Vampire Nocturnus this is not. The price of $1 is pure hype, and I wouldn't touch it. The reason is pretty simple, and you might have heard the phrase before: dies to removal! Verdict: sell.
Obstinate Baloth - the Great Sable Stag of M11, the ultimate Jund-hate. Once Jund dies to rotation, it will lose a lot of it's use, and will only be played as a sideboard card against RDW, provided that RDW is a deck after the rotation, and it doesn't bring Leyline of Punishment from the board. Verdict: sell.

Those are the cards I picked for evaluation. If you feel I've missed something, feel free to ask.

M11 Prerelease finished, Pyromancer Ascension going up

M11 prerelease events are finished. Promo Sun Titans are no longer entering the market, but it's still time to buy some more. If you're into daytrading (I'm not) promo Sun Titans were great for this purpose - you could buy them at 2 tix and sell at 3 tix all day long. All M11 cards are high now and you should stay away from them unless you want to daytrade or know something I don't :).

Cardbot is selling Pyromancer Ascensions at 2,5 tix now. It may go a bit higher, but not by much - I'm selling mine now.