Preparing for rotation

I planned to write something entirely different in this entry: how the meta for the upcoming Standard is going to be defined by three cards, and how we won't be seeing a single deck to beat similar to Jund from one year ago. If you're reading some pre-rotation stuff, you might have read it already. That was the plan. The thing is - this is simply not true.
When Zendikar became legal, there was one question you had to answer when designing a new deck: How do I beat Jund? And it wasn't an easy question. The beginning of this Standard will have a similar question begging answer: How do I beat Primeval Titan? The M11 mythic was already showing success before the rotation - just look at MTGO events, and you will see it everywhere. It's even worse in the 2-man queues, as some 30% decks being played are Primeval Titan builds. The percentage will grow when we get Scars of Mirrodin - the decks lose very little, and gain a nice tool to fight unfavoured matchups.

There are 2 Primeval Titan builds - Valakut Titan and Mono Green Eldrazi. If haven't been playing Magic in the last months, here's a quick look at both of them:

Valakut Titan by Jorlain72, 6th place Standard Premier #1641449 on 10/02/2010

Main Deck

3 Evolving Wilds

5 Forest

11 Mountain

4 Terramorphic Expanse

4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

2 Avenger of Zendikar

1 Inferno Titan

2 Oracle of Mul Daya

4 Primeval Titan

3 Cultivate

4 Explore

4 Harrow

3 Khalni Heart Expedition

3 Lightning Bolt

4 Rampant Growth

3 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 Back to Nature

4 Goblin Ruinblaster

1 Lavaball Trap

1 Naturalize

3 Pyroclasm

2 Ricochet Trap

Mono G Eldrazi by Marcin Karolczak,

4-0 in Standard Daily #1641401 on 10/03/2010

Main Deck

4 Eldrazi Temple

1 Eye of Ugin

12 Forest

4 Khalni Garden

1 Mystifying Maze

4 Tectonic Edge

1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

4 Joraga Treespeaker

1 Kozilek, Butcher of Truth

4 Overgrown Battlement

4 Primeval Titan

3 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre

1 All Is Dust

3 Cultivate

3 Everflowing Chalice

3 Explore

4 Rampant Growth

4 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 All Is Dust

2 Fog

3 Hornet Sting

2 Master of the Wild Hunt

4 Obstinate Baloth

Both these decks are powerful, easy to play, and lose very little to rotation. Does it remind you something? Yup, Jund. They will be everywhere. In 2-man queues, expect them to exceed 50% of all decks played, similar to how Jund was in the first days of Alara-Zendikar Standard.

What does all this have to do with investing? First of all, I'm not that sure now that Wall of Omens was such a good investment. It doesn't do anything against Primeval Titan decks, so my hopes of it going up to 3 tix soon are slim. I will keep the ones I've already bought, but I won't buy any more. Second - I've mentioned a new tool for Primeval Titan build that helps against unfavoured matchups. The matchups I had in mind were aggro decks, especially RDW - and the tool is Wurmcoil Engine. And here comes my recommendation - buy Wurmcoil Engine promos. I know I've recommended buying Sun Titan promos, and it wasn't that good yet, but I feel Wurmcoil Engine is a better buy. It is colorless, so it fits a lot of decks, and it goes straight into the dominant decks of the coming meta.

As for Primeval Titan itself - it will also go up, but it's already quite high at 27 tix. I can't see it going above 50 tix, and that is already being pretty optimistic. You will make some profit, but it won't be that much. I have a Valakut build that I am going to sell after the rotation - and that's all the investing in Primeval Titan I'm going to do.

1000 Tix Challenge - part 1

As I've written in my first post on this blog, new decks are great opportunities for profit. I've mentioned netdecking successful decks, but there is one more flavour to it - creating your own decks and mass-buying key parts of the deck. And this is what inspired my first buy of 1000 Tix Challenge. Introducing... Dredgeooze!

4 Misty Rainforest

4 Scalding Tarn

4 Verdant Catacombs

2 Drowned Catacomb

6 Forest

2 Island

2 Swamp

4 Birds of Paradise

4 Enclave Cryptologist

4 Hedron Crab

4 Lotus Cobra

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Renegade Doppelganger

4 Vengevine

4 Necrotic Ooze

4 Gigantomancer

This deck is a variation of Dredgevine that uses a new Scars of Mirrodin card - Necrotic Ooze. If you haven't seen it already, here it is:

Necrotic Ooze 2BB

Creature - Ooze

As long as Necrotic Ooze is on the battlefield, it has all activated abilities of all creature cards in all graveyards.

"To death all must go, and so in death lies ultimate power."

-Geth, Lord of the Vault

Illus. James Ryman #72/249
4/3

Begs to be broken, doesn't it? Well, here is my attempt to doing just that: Gigantomancer. Of course it has to find it's way into your graveyard, that's why I've decided to adopt the Dredgevine core. Ooze + Gigantomancer feels a lot like Sovereigns of Lost Alara + Eldrazi Conscription - turns your weenies into superheroes. There are some things you can change, like swapping Enclave Cryptologists for River Boas to make your Ooze even more awesome. Another consideration is the new Molten-Tail Masticore:

Molten-Tail Masticore 4

Artifact Creature - Masticore

At the beginning of your upkeep, sacrifice Molten-Tail Masticore unless you discard a card.

4, Exile a creature card from your graveyard: Molten-Tail Masticore deals 4 damage to target creature or player.

2: Regenerate Molten-Tail Masticore.

Illus. Whit Brachna #177/249
4/4

Whatever this deck turns into, I'm sure Ooze + Gigantomancer is going to be great. So sure, that I'm going to put my money on it.

Yup, that's 105 Gigantomancers you're seeing, all bought for 9 tix. I didn't record all the trades, as there were quite a lot of them, but I now have 0.35 tix credit at SharpBot. I can easily see Gigantomacer going for 2 tix once this deck hits. I recommend buying them while they're still cheap.

Cashing in on Steel Overseers

The more spoilers of Scars of Mirrodin I'm seeing, the less I'm confident that Steel Overseer is going to see play. It's best suited for artifact aggro decks and those will most probably be Myr decks. They will already run Myr Galvanizer and Tempered Steel as mass pump effects and I don't think Steel Overseer will find it's place there. And this means one thing - time to sell! Steel Overseer can be sold easily at 2.25 tix, which is a very good profit from the 0.60 tix it was when I recommended buying.

Someone asked me about Hoarding Dragon - I think it's useless. 5 mana for a 4/4 flying creature is not impressive these days and the tutor effect is unreliable - Unsummon, Journey to Nowhere and Condemn all mean the tutored artifact stays exiled forever.

Scars of Mirrodin - Phylactery Lich has a new friend

Or a new phylactery for that matter. I've written about this in M11 analysis - darksteel is making a return in Scars of Mirrodin in the form of Darksteel Axe. Now we know it's an indestructible Bonesplitter - and it looks tailored for the Lich. As I'm writing this Phylactery Lich can be bought at 0.9 tix and I expect it to raise to 2 tix in a few days time, and maybe further once more cards are spoiled.

While we are at SoM spoilers and price movements that they're causing - Steel Overseer is no longer a good buy, selling at 2 tix. I'd wait a bit with selling it as an artifact aggro deck is very likely to appear with Metalcraft being the new Affinity. Steel Overseer is going to be available in Elspeth vs Tezzeret, but I don't think it will have enough of an effect to make it buyable again.

Keep an eye on the spoilers and have some tix at hand - I know I sure will, and if I see any new opportunities you'll be able to read about them here.

M11 Investment Analysis

It's 2 weeks since M11 has been released on MTGO. Today I'd like to write about cards that I see as having potential to rise, and some cards that people on the forums are expecting to rise, but I don't agree with them.

Primeval Titan - the Baneslayer Angel of M11, the most expensive card of the set. It has dropped as low as $30 at one point, and kept gaining value since. Right now it's at $38, and I expect it to raise further to about $45 - $50 to meet it's paper price due to redemption. This DOESN'T mean it's a good investment though - if you're going to play the card, buy it now, but the prospect of 20-30% price increase is not enough to validate investing in it. Verdict: buy to play, otherwise pass.
Grave Titan - the best Titan, as claimed by Luis Scott-Vargas among others, is the third most expensive card in the set at $9. Right now it doesn't have a home in Standard, and I'm going to risk stating that it won't have one at least until Scars of Mirrodin. Even if it was to find a home, you will still have time between the deck appearance to the price spike to buy the card. Verdict: wait for a deck to appear.
Sun Titan - right now it's only home is UW control, and it's not enough to raise the price above the $4 it is currently selling at. As a side-note: if you bought those promo Titans at a reasonable price, and haven't sold them at $3, hold them. It's a long term investment, but it should pay off, especially when Alara rotates and the demand for Zen and M11 playables goes up. Verdict: pass.
Fauna Shaman - the most powerful rare of the set, it sees play in Naya, and it sells at about $4. The card has lots of potential, and it may appear in more decks, especially after the rotation. Verdict: wait for the rotation.
Phylactery Lich - the card gets quite a lot of hype, but until recently I wasn't much of it's fan. I viewed the Lich as a 2 for 1 against you waiting to happen, especially with an artifact-heavy set just around the corner artifact hate should become more powerful, making the Lich worse. All this changed with one information: a name of a card from Scars. Darksteel Axe. Darksteel is back, and with it, indestructible artifacts should also be back. If we get a playable, 2-mana indestructible artifact, and we don't have any targeted artifact exile effects, Phylactery Lich should gain value. Verdict: wait for Scars of Mirrodin spoiler season, buy if conditions are met.
Steel Overseer - again a highly hyped card, this one actually might be the Knight of the Reliquary of M11. Sunburst is confirmed to return in Scars of Mirrodin, and it may mean a powerful synergy for the Overseer. I'm already trying to buy them at $0.50, but I may start buying higher during the spoiler season. Verdict: buy when you see them low, pay attention during the spoiler season.
Knight Exemplar - yet another highly hyped card, Vampire Nocturnus this is not. The price of $1 is pure hype, and I wouldn't touch it. The reason is pretty simple, and you might have heard the phrase before: dies to removal! Verdict: sell.
Obstinate Baloth - the Great Sable Stag of M11, the ultimate Jund-hate. Once Jund dies to rotation, it will lose a lot of it's use, and will only be played as a sideboard card against RDW, provided that RDW is a deck after the rotation, and it doesn't bring Leyline of Punishment from the board. Verdict: sell.

Those are the cards I picked for evaluation. If you feel I've missed something, feel free to ask.