And now for something completely different

The title may be a bit misleading, as this post is a follow-up on the last one. But it IS different - this will be my first take on deck-tech. I was planning to do a different post, but after playing 50 2-man queues with the GW Quest I just have to get this out of my system.

As I've said, I've had 50 matches in the 2-mans, and I really like how the deck plays. I scored a 32-18 record, which I don't think shows how good the final version of the deck is. I have started with the following list:

An ancient GW Quest lits (kids, don't try this at home)

Main deck

5 Forest

8 Plains

4 Razorverge Thicket

4 Sunpetal Grove

2 Stirring Wildwood

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Glint Hawk

4 Birds of Paradise

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Squadron Hawk

1 Kor Outfitter

1 Stoneforge Mystic

4 Vengevine

4 Quest for the Holy Relic

2 Argentum Armor

1 Sword of Body and Mind

Sideboard

1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

3 Devout Lightcaster

4 Kor Firewalker

4 Obstinate Baloth

3 Kor Sanctifiers

I've played a total of 4 matches with the above list (2-2 record), and I already knew I hated Birds of Paradise. The birds quickly became 3 Kor Skyfishers and 1 Basilisk Collar. I've played some 13 matches with those changes, and was delighted. I produces a 11-2 record, which was really impressive. Then came a streak of worse results, which led to changes in the sideboard (2 Baloths and 2 Sanctifiers out, 4 Leonin Arbiters in). With a 16-8 record came the server maintenance, and with it - Gold queues. I wouldn't be myself if I didn't try to seize this opportunity of making some quick tix so I jumped in. The result? A 1-4 start and 31 tix lost in 1 day. Playing the last 4 games after midnight while being really tired is some excuse, but I went back to the lab for some changes. And here's the final list:

GW Quest 2.0 (with Tchoob's seal of approval)

Main deck

5 Forest

8 Plains

4 Razorverge Thicket

4 Sunpetal Grove

2 Stirring Wildwood

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Glint Hawk

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Squadron Hawk

3 Kor Skyfisher

1 War Priest of Thune

1 Stoneforge Mystic

4 Vengevine

4 Quest for the Holy Relic

2 Argentum Armor

1 Sword of Body and Mind

1 Basilisk Collar

Sideboard

2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

4 Devout Lightcaster

4 Kor Firewalker

4 Leonin Arbiter

1 War Priest of Thune

With this list I've cruised through the Gold queues to a 13-4 record in the 2 following days, more that making up for my losses from day 1 each of those days. The main deck hasn't changed much, but the real changes are in the sideboard. But instead of explaining each card choice I'll describe the matchups, in order of number of matches played against each archetype.

Valakut

Result: 9-2

Yup, you've read that right. 9-2 against the most common, and as some people state the best archetype in Standard. It may look surprising as long as you don't look into the matchup. Game 1 both sides try to combo out as fast as possible, with the only interaction being some Lightning Bolts from across the board. As my GW Quest build is tuned to be as good a Quest deck as the mono White versions, it is on average a turn or two faster than Valakut. This is the good hand scenario. In the bad hand scenario they struggle with they're ramp while you don't have the Quest, but you do have the creatures and simply bash them unopposed. This makes Game 1 favourable. Of course if they get the ramp and you don't get Quest or 3 Vengevines in the grave early, you will lose.

Sideboard:

+4 Leonin Arbiter

+1 War Priest of Thune (assuming they pack Khalni Heart Expedition)

-4 Squadron Hawk

-1 Basilisk Collar

You may have been surprised to see Leonin Arbiter in the board, but let me tell you a secret - it changes each Valakut hand into a bad hand unless removed. It also hurts your deck, bet it's nothing compared to the handbrake it applies to Valakut. Of course they will have more removal after sideboard, but you have more things that absolutely need to be removed. The extra War Priest also helps to slow them down to a crawl.

BR Vampires

Result: 2-4

A great matchup is followed by a poor one. I haven't played against Vampires with the final list, but I don't expect it to do very good. Game 1 you absolutely have to combo out with Quest, so I hope you have mulliganed aggressively (which you really always should do with this deck). You won't be able to beat Kalastria Highborn + Viscera Seer + Bloodghast without Argentum Armor, or the most insane Vengevine draws, and I kept seeing that trio all the time against Vamps. And even the best Vengevine draws won't save you from Demon of Death's Gate turn 3.

Sideboard:

+4 Devout Lightcaster

+2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-4 Squadron Hawk

-1 War Priest of Thune

-1 Sword of Body and Mind

After sideboard life becomes a bit easier, as you have more outs to Highborn and Demon. If you live long enough to see 5 mana Devout Lightcaster + Kor Skyfisher can be a blowout. Linvala blocks Viscera Seer shenanigans. All in all I feel this is the hardest matchup for this deck.

UB Control

Result: 3-2

Game 1 is pretty ok. Both your plans are viable, and even if you only destroy one of they're permanents with Argentum Armor before the wearer gets Doom Bladed you still have gained value. Vengevines are simply silly good in this matchup. Both Basilisk Collar and Sword of Body and Mind are useful, as the first one can deal with Grave Titan and the second one with everything else.

Sideboard:

+4 Devout Lightcaster

+2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-4 Quest for the Holy Relic

-1 Argentum Armor

-1 War Priest of Thune

Yup, there it is. You take out all the Quests, and turn your deck into a Vengevine aggro deck. Linvala is used only as an evasive beater, nothing more. Your opponent has probably sided in all the Quest hate in the world, so you have an advantage. Lightcaster equipped with Sword of Body and Mind is amazing. It may actually be correct to ignore Jace and just go for the throat - provided of course you can get your hands on a pair of Vengevines. This matchup is definitely favoured.

Mono G Eldrazi

Result: 3-2

The second ramp deck is actually tougher than the first one. Game 1 is especially hard as you don't have any means to disrupt they're ramp. Quest nut draws will beat them, as they beat everything in Standard, but otherwise you need that turn 2 Fauna Shaman and multiple ways to bring back annihilated Vengevines in hand. I'd say that Game 1 is slightly favoured.

Sideboard:

+2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-1 War Priest of Thune

-1 Glint Hawk

Linvala helps as a lot of they're ramp is creature based, and she will fly over all blockers save Emrakul. Not much changes from Game 1 except they may have some artifact hate which they trade for speed - and that's fine with you as this can allow you to aggro them. Post sideboard games are still slightly favoured.

RUG Control

Result: 2-2

This one is better than it looks from the results - they're skewed by one match played at 1AM as the last of a 4-match tilt. Again, both your plans are good, and they're only hope against a resolved Sword of Body and Mind is either Inferno Titan or swarming you with Avenger of Zendikar. They don't have a lot of win conditions, so your Vengevines will have a lot of time to kill them. Game 1 is definitely favoured.

Sideboard:

+1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-1 War Priest of Thune

Post-sideboard games are a bit harder, as you're not getting anything useful. They will probably run more removal, but that's not going to stop your angry plants. I feel this match is favoured.

GW Quest

Result: 0-2

The mirror. If they are running Birds Game 1 is very slightly favoured, as you are the better Quest deck. You may have a small advantage because of War Priest of Thune mainboard. Short of that... well, it's a mirror.

Sideboard:

+1 War Priest of Thune

-1 Basilisk Collar

I have been on the receiving end of Fauna Shaman powered War Priests in both matches, and they hurt. Having one in the opening hand is a good sign.

WW Quest

Result: 2-0

Game 1 they have to get an early Argentum Armor, or they can't beat you. Really, that's all you can say here.

Sideboard:

+1 War Priest of Thune

-1 Basilisk Collar

Post-sideboard: see GW Quest. Keep in mind that they run Kor Outfitters, so don't take to long killing them, or they will equip that Armor even if you don't let them fire Quest. This matchup is definitely favoured.

UW Control

Result: 1-1

I don't have enough play experience against UW, but they run less instant speed removal than UB which makes Quest better. They also run Journey to Nowhere, which makes Vengevine worse than against UB.

Sideboard:

+1 War Priest of Thune

+2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-1 Basilisk Collar

-1 Memnite

-1 Glint Hawk

Linvala + Sword of Body and Mind gives you an out against Baneslayer Angel apart from Argentum Armor. I can't write anything more because as I've said, I haven't played a lot of UW.

These are all the archetypes with more than 1 match played. As you can see there are no Red decks here, but they are the reason for Kor Firewalkers in the sideboard. I replace Squadron Hawks with Firewalkers in RDW and Boros matchups.

I haven't seen any GW Quest list 4-0 a Daily Event yet, but I feel this list is more than capable of doing it. I really recommend you to try this list out, as turn 3 Argentum Armor is the most powerful thing you can do in Standard, and this deck doesn't fizzle when you can't get that Armor or they deal with it. Besides, by making the deck popular you help Fauna Shaman reach it's rightful price tag :).

PS: Now this is one long post...

1000 Tix Challenge - part 5

There was nothing going on here for some time, 'cause I've taken a two week break from Magic. Just before the break I've been playing around with Argentum Quest deck. I'll post an example deck for the sake of it, but I'm sure you're familiar with it.

Argentum Quest by Smang, 3-1 in Standard Daily #1783864 on 11/19/2010

Main Deck

22 Plains

4 Glint Hawk

4 Kor Duelist

3 Kor Outfitter

4 Kor Skyfisher

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Squadron Hawk

3 Stoneforge Mystic

2 Argentum Armor

4 Quest for the Holy Relic

2 Sword of Body and Mind

Sideboard

4 Devout Lightcaster

4 Kor Firewalker

3 Leonin Arbiter

4 Revoke Existence

The main plan is to get an early Quest for the Holy Relic followed by a swarm of creatures, which leads to Argentum Armor entering play on turn 3. This is all nice, but I hate the deck's plan B - attacking with dorks and bears is not that great, unless your opponent folds to Sword of Body and Mind. I've been trying to find a solid plan B before the break by adding what's left of Soul Sisters deck. Turns out that while Ajani's Pridemate is still Tarmogoyf even without Soul Warden, Serra Ascendant is no longer the 1-mana Baneslayer Angel. The deck wasn't good enough for my tastes.

After I came back to MtGO I've stumbled upon an article by Josh Silvestri posted on Channel Fireball. The addition of Vengevine seemed like a great idea - after all, both Vengevine and Quest for the Holy Relic require the same conditions to activate. I bought some angry vines and tested the deck in the 2-man queues. While I liked the deck in general, there were some cards that I felt didn't fit. While Molten-Tail Masticore is a great card, it was too slow for my tasted - 4 4-drop spots were already taken by VV, and the deck wasn't aggressive enough. With Masticores gone, the deck didn't need that much mana - and that invalidated the usage of Birds of Paradise. What did I put in? Well, look at the list below:

Main deck

5 Forest

8 Plains

4 Razorverge Thicket

4 Sunpetal Grove

2 Stirring Wildwood

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Glint Hawk

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Squadron Hawk

3 Kor Skyfisher

1 Kor Outfitter

1 Stoneforge Mystic

4 Vengevine

4 Quest for the Holy Relic

2 Argentum Armor

1 Sword of Body and Mind

1 Basilisk Collar

Sideboard

1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

3 Devout Lightcaster

4 Kor Firewalker

4 Obstinate Baloth

3 Kor Sanctifiers

This deck has all the things you need to make Quest work - 8 0-drops, Glint Hawks, Squadron Hawks and Kor Skyfishers. This makes it nearly as good at getting Argentum Armor on the battlefield as the original deck (nearly - sometimes you won't have any white mana in your opening hand), while plan B is vastly better. The sideboard is not set in stone - feel free to suggest changes. I recommend this deck to anyone who wants to play aggro with a combo twist.

And this leads us to the point of this post: my new Buy recommendation. I've waited with buying this card long enough, but I think that's it:

I don't think that anyone's surprised. In my opinion Fauna Shaman has been underpriced for a long time. It's an awesome card and it's available for a mere 2.25 tix. The deck I've described is already seeing 3-1 results with Birds in it, and I think that the birdless version is superior.

You may also notice that I've sold some Bala Ged Thieves - that was before my break, and I got 3 tix from 16 Thieves. I should be able to sell the rest for 2 tix now, which would be 1 ticket of profit. Hardly worth the time spent, but things like this happen.

Since this post is already quite long by my standards, I'll end it here. Stay tuned for a little summary of my past recommendations soon.

1000 Tix Challenge - part 4

Mindbreak Trap has gone up - but not as much as I thought. Even though Cardbot is selling it at 4.50, the best you can sell it is 2.80 each at foggybot. I can't see it going any higher. I have already sold mine, and I recommend you do the same.

I've sold 8 Mindbreak Traps for a total of 25 tix. But as you can see, there are some new cards in my collection: 31 Bala Ged Thieves. And the reason for this is another Building on a Budget article by Jacob van Lunen. True story: I login on my main MTGO account, enter Tournament Practice and what is the first deck I face? Yup, WB Allies, exactly as described in the article :) I'd probably buy more if I wasn't that sleepy. I highly recommend buying some Bala Ged Thieves.

1000 Tix Challenge - part 3

Playing control against Primeval Titan decks can be really annoying, as using counters is dangerous - you can always fall into Summoning Trap that will ruin your day. That was one of the main reasons why I thought Primeval Titan is going to dominate the early new Standard meta. And it did - it was everywhere in States. Is there no hope for permission strategies in Standard? Well, let's look at the winner from California:

UB Control by i-never-smile, 1st place in CA States

Main Deck

4 Swamp

7 Island

4 Tectonic Edge

4 Creeping Tar Pit

4 Darkslick Shores

2 Drowned Catacomb

4 Mana Leak

2 Negate

2 Cancel

2 Stoic Rebuttal

3 Mindbreak Trap

3 Inquisition of Kozilek

4 Doom Blade

2 Into the Roil

3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

2 Sphinx of Jwar Isle

4 Preordain

4 Jace's Ingenuity

Sideboard

2 Sign in Blood

2 Smother

2 Disfigure

3 Flashfreeze

2 Duress

2 Grave Titan

2 Consume the Meek

Frankly, I love this list. It seems tuned to kick some serious Primeval butt. First of all - the finisher of choice, Sphinx of Jwar Isle. It's unkillable for any Primeval Titan deck. Second - and this one is a stroke of genius - Mindbreak Trap. Here is your answer to Summoning Trap - not only it avoids triggering it's trap condition, but also helps against countered threat into countered trap into trap chains that are nigh-on unbeatable otherwise. And you know where this one leads:

Yup, that's 8 Mindbreak Traps bought for 16 ticks. You can get them easily for 2.25 pretty much everywhere. Once it catches on, it should rise to about 6 tix.

Preparing for rotation

I planned to write something entirely different in this entry: how the meta for the upcoming Standard is going to be defined by three cards, and how we won't be seeing a single deck to beat similar to Jund from one year ago. If you're reading some pre-rotation stuff, you might have read it already. That was the plan. The thing is - this is simply not true.
When Zendikar became legal, there was one question you had to answer when designing a new deck: How do I beat Jund? And it wasn't an easy question. The beginning of this Standard will have a similar question begging answer: How do I beat Primeval Titan? The M11 mythic was already showing success before the rotation - just look at MTGO events, and you will see it everywhere. It's even worse in the 2-man queues, as some 30% decks being played are Primeval Titan builds. The percentage will grow when we get Scars of Mirrodin - the decks lose very little, and gain a nice tool to fight unfavoured matchups.

There are 2 Primeval Titan builds - Valakut Titan and Mono Green Eldrazi. If haven't been playing Magic in the last months, here's a quick look at both of them:

Valakut Titan by Jorlain72, 6th place Standard Premier #1641449 on 10/02/2010

Main Deck

3 Evolving Wilds

5 Forest

11 Mountain

4 Terramorphic Expanse

4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

2 Avenger of Zendikar

1 Inferno Titan

2 Oracle of Mul Daya

4 Primeval Titan

3 Cultivate

4 Explore

4 Harrow

3 Khalni Heart Expedition

3 Lightning Bolt

4 Rampant Growth

3 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 Back to Nature

4 Goblin Ruinblaster

1 Lavaball Trap

1 Naturalize

3 Pyroclasm

2 Ricochet Trap

Mono G Eldrazi by Marcin Karolczak,

4-0 in Standard Daily #1641401 on 10/03/2010

Main Deck

4 Eldrazi Temple

1 Eye of Ugin

12 Forest

4 Khalni Garden

1 Mystifying Maze

4 Tectonic Edge

1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

4 Joraga Treespeaker

1 Kozilek, Butcher of Truth

4 Overgrown Battlement

4 Primeval Titan

3 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre

1 All Is Dust

3 Cultivate

3 Everflowing Chalice

3 Explore

4 Rampant Growth

4 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 All Is Dust

2 Fog

3 Hornet Sting

2 Master of the Wild Hunt

4 Obstinate Baloth

Both these decks are powerful, easy to play, and lose very little to rotation. Does it remind you something? Yup, Jund. They will be everywhere. In 2-man queues, expect them to exceed 50% of all decks played, similar to how Jund was in the first days of Alara-Zendikar Standard.

What does all this have to do with investing? First of all, I'm not that sure now that Wall of Omens was such a good investment. It doesn't do anything against Primeval Titan decks, so my hopes of it going up to 3 tix soon are slim. I will keep the ones I've already bought, but I won't buy any more. Second - I've mentioned a new tool for Primeval Titan build that helps against unfavoured matchups. The matchups I had in mind were aggro decks, especially RDW - and the tool is Wurmcoil Engine. And here comes my recommendation - buy Wurmcoil Engine promos. I know I've recommended buying Sun Titan promos, and it wasn't that good yet, but I feel Wurmcoil Engine is a better buy. It is colorless, so it fits a lot of decks, and it goes straight into the dominant decks of the coming meta.

As for Primeval Titan itself - it will also go up, but it's already quite high at 27 tix. I can't see it going above 50 tix, and that is already being pretty optimistic. You will make some profit, but it won't be that much. I have a Valakut build that I am going to sell after the rotation - and that's all the investing in Primeval Titan I'm going to do.

1000 Tix Challenge - part 2

I've made my second buy - and it's pretty small. Take a look yourselves:



Yup, that's 3 Time Reversals you're seeing, bought for a total of 6 tix. I've been pondering buying them for some time now, and I have missed the low point of 1.75 tix. I've bought them 2 days ago, and bots are now buying for 2.25 each. I feel that Wizards are telegraphing a combo deck with Time Reversal using cards like Runeflare Trap and Molten Psyche. I don't have a list this time, and I can't honestly recommend buying - it's only a feeling, not a logical reason to buy. Let's see how this gamble works :)

1000 Tix Challenge - part 1

As I've written in my first post on this blog, new decks are great opportunities for profit. I've mentioned netdecking successful decks, but there is one more flavour to it - creating your own decks and mass-buying key parts of the deck. And this is what inspired my first buy of 1000 Tix Challenge. Introducing... Dredgeooze!

4 Misty Rainforest

4 Scalding Tarn

4 Verdant Catacombs

2 Drowned Catacomb

6 Forest

2 Island

2 Swamp

4 Birds of Paradise

4 Enclave Cryptologist

4 Hedron Crab

4 Lotus Cobra

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Renegade Doppelganger

4 Vengevine

4 Necrotic Ooze

4 Gigantomancer

This deck is a variation of Dredgevine that uses a new Scars of Mirrodin card - Necrotic Ooze. If you haven't seen it already, here it is:

Necrotic Ooze 2BB

Creature - Ooze

As long as Necrotic Ooze is on the battlefield, it has all activated abilities of all creature cards in all graveyards.

"To death all must go, and so in death lies ultimate power."

-Geth, Lord of the Vault

Illus. James Ryman #72/249
4/3

Begs to be broken, doesn't it? Well, here is my attempt to doing just that: Gigantomancer. Of course it has to find it's way into your graveyard, that's why I've decided to adopt the Dredgevine core. Ooze + Gigantomancer feels a lot like Sovereigns of Lost Alara + Eldrazi Conscription - turns your weenies into superheroes. There are some things you can change, like swapping Enclave Cryptologists for River Boas to make your Ooze even more awesome. Another consideration is the new Molten-Tail Masticore:

Molten-Tail Masticore 4

Artifact Creature - Masticore

At the beginning of your upkeep, sacrifice Molten-Tail Masticore unless you discard a card.

4, Exile a creature card from your graveyard: Molten-Tail Masticore deals 4 damage to target creature or player.

2: Regenerate Molten-Tail Masticore.

Illus. Whit Brachna #177/249
4/4

Whatever this deck turns into, I'm sure Ooze + Gigantomancer is going to be great. So sure, that I'm going to put my money on it.

Yup, that's 105 Gigantomancers you're seeing, all bought for 9 tix. I didn't record all the trades, as there were quite a lot of them, but I now have 0.35 tix credit at SharpBot. I can easily see Gigantomacer going for 2 tix once this deck hits. I recommend buying them while they're still cheap.

Cashing in on Steel Overseers

The more spoilers of Scars of Mirrodin I'm seeing, the less I'm confident that Steel Overseer is going to see play. It's best suited for artifact aggro decks and those will most probably be Myr decks. They will already run Myr Galvanizer and Tempered Steel as mass pump effects and I don't think Steel Overseer will find it's place there. And this means one thing - time to sell! Steel Overseer can be sold easily at 2.25 tix, which is a very good profit from the 0.60 tix it was when I recommended buying.

Someone asked me about Hoarding Dragon - I think it's useless. 5 mana for a 4/4 flying creature is not impressive these days and the tutor effect is unreliable - Unsummon, Journey to Nowhere and Condemn all mean the tutored artifact stays exiled forever.

1000 Tix Challenge - intro

Sometimes I find myself wondering: if I am as good at identifying profit opportunities as I think I am, why do I still have so few tix on my account? Sure, I have gone infinite in the sense that I don't have to pay for the game and my balance is more or less stable, even though I keep losing tix on new deck creations and failed drafts. I guess there are two reasons:
-I'm not focused enough. A few days ago I've seen the Mindslaver get spoiled mere minutes after it has gone public. I've checked the price to see it being available at 0.5 tix. I was sure it was going to go up, had 40 tix at hand, but decided against buying. Why? Because I felt sleepy. It wasn't even particularly late, but tiredness got the best of me. I woke up next day to see Mindslaver being bought at 2 tix. That was 20 minutes of sleep that cost me some 120 tix. It happens :)
-I spend quite a lot. New decks and limited are the main spendings. I'm not really competitive, but I tend to spend all my tix and none are left for investments.

A day after Mindslaver got spoiled my friend came up with an idea: "You should hold a challenge on your blog - start with 50 tix and get to 1000 as fast as you can." I must say I loved the idea. This is something to keep me focused, and if I keep track of tix earned, I won't be tempted to spend them. I created a new account, and here's it's current status:


50 tix, and some untradable stuff. I also have some 0.5 tix at one of the bot chains after selling stuff from the intro pack. And that's it. Current balance: 50 tix. Target: 1000 tix. 1900% profit. I feel like I can make it within a year. Wish me luck!

Kiss your phylactery goodbye

Phylactery Lich has gone up to 1.75 at major bots, and I feel that's enough. You may only get 1.25 tix when selling, which is 40% profit if you bought at 0.90, but I don't think you will get much more of this card. I don't believe there's a deck out there that is going to make Phylactery Lich a star - it's price boost is pure hype and it will die out soon. You can see it already when you search for the Lich on classifieds - nearly nobody is buying the card, and there are a lot of sell offers. This is a good time to get off the boat before it starts to sink. And it should sink soon.

Scars of Mirrodin - Phylactery Lich has a new friend

Or a new phylactery for that matter. I've written about this in M11 analysis - darksteel is making a return in Scars of Mirrodin in the form of Darksteel Axe. Now we know it's an indestructible Bonesplitter - and it looks tailored for the Lich. As I'm writing this Phylactery Lich can be bought at 0.9 tix and I expect it to raise to 2 tix in a few days time, and maybe further once more cards are spoiled.

While we are at SoM spoilers and price movements that they're causing - Steel Overseer is no longer a good buy, selling at 2 tix. I'd wait a bit with selling it as an artifact aggro deck is very likely to appear with Metalcraft being the new Affinity. Steel Overseer is going to be available in Elspeth vs Tezzeret, but I don't think it will have enough of an effect to make it buyable again.

Keep an eye on the spoilers and have some tix at hand - I know I sure will, and if I see any new opportunities you'll be able to read about them here.

M11 Investment Analysis

It's 2 weeks since M11 has been released on MTGO. Today I'd like to write about cards that I see as having potential to rise, and some cards that people on the forums are expecting to rise, but I don't agree with them.

Primeval Titan - the Baneslayer Angel of M11, the most expensive card of the set. It has dropped as low as $30 at one point, and kept gaining value since. Right now it's at $38, and I expect it to raise further to about $45 - $50 to meet it's paper price due to redemption. This DOESN'T mean it's a good investment though - if you're going to play the card, buy it now, but the prospect of 20-30% price increase is not enough to validate investing in it. Verdict: buy to play, otherwise pass.
Grave Titan - the best Titan, as claimed by Luis Scott-Vargas among others, is the third most expensive card in the set at $9. Right now it doesn't have a home in Standard, and I'm going to risk stating that it won't have one at least until Scars of Mirrodin. Even if it was to find a home, you will still have time between the deck appearance to the price spike to buy the card. Verdict: wait for a deck to appear.
Sun Titan - right now it's only home is UW control, and it's not enough to raise the price above the $4 it is currently selling at. As a side-note: if you bought those promo Titans at a reasonable price, and haven't sold them at $3, hold them. It's a long term investment, but it should pay off, especially when Alara rotates and the demand for Zen and M11 playables goes up. Verdict: pass.
Fauna Shaman - the most powerful rare of the set, it sees play in Naya, and it sells at about $4. The card has lots of potential, and it may appear in more decks, especially after the rotation. Verdict: wait for the rotation.
Phylactery Lich - the card gets quite a lot of hype, but until recently I wasn't much of it's fan. I viewed the Lich as a 2 for 1 against you waiting to happen, especially with an artifact-heavy set just around the corner artifact hate should become more powerful, making the Lich worse. All this changed with one information: a name of a card from Scars. Darksteel Axe. Darksteel is back, and with it, indestructible artifacts should also be back. If we get a playable, 2-mana indestructible artifact, and we don't have any targeted artifact exile effects, Phylactery Lich should gain value. Verdict: wait for Scars of Mirrodin spoiler season, buy if conditions are met.
Steel Overseer - again a highly hyped card, this one actually might be the Knight of the Reliquary of M11. Sunburst is confirmed to return in Scars of Mirrodin, and it may mean a powerful synergy for the Overseer. I'm already trying to buy them at $0.50, but I may start buying higher during the spoiler season. Verdict: buy when you see them low, pay attention during the spoiler season.
Knight Exemplar - yet another highly hyped card, Vampire Nocturnus this is not. The price of $1 is pure hype, and I wouldn't touch it. The reason is pretty simple, and you might have heard the phrase before: dies to removal! Verdict: sell.
Obstinate Baloth - the Great Sable Stag of M11, the ultimate Jund-hate. Once Jund dies to rotation, it will lose a lot of it's use, and will only be played as a sideboard card against RDW, provided that RDW is a deck after the rotation, and it doesn't bring Leyline of Punishment from the board. Verdict: sell.

Those are the cards I picked for evaluation. If you feel I've missed something, feel free to ask.

M11 Prerelease finished, Pyromancer Ascension going up

M11 prerelease events are finished. Promo Sun Titans are no longer entering the market, but it's still time to buy some more. If you're into daytrading (I'm not) promo Sun Titans were great for this purpose - you could buy them at 2 tix and sell at 3 tix all day long. All M11 cards are high now and you should stay away from them unless you want to daytrade or know something I don't :).

Cardbot is selling Pyromancer Ascensions at 2,5 tix now. It may go a bit higher, but not by much - I'm selling mine now.

New deck - Pyromancer Ascension

There's a new deck in paper Standard based on Pyromancer Ascension that gets infinite turns with Time Warp and Call to Mind. You can check that on Building on a Budget article by Jacob van Lunen. Some cards from that deck aren't present online, but Pyromancer Ascension is already going up. Most bots are sold out on it, and the biggest bot networks sell it for 0.8 tix, but if you search you can find it cheaper. There's still room for going up when the missing cards for the deck are available tomorrow with the M11 Pre-release.

The basics - Opportunities, Part 2

Today I continue the topic of identifying profit opportunities.

Top uncommons:
All the uncommons from the currently printed/drafted block are very easy and don't go above 0.5 tix. This is true now for the Zendikar block, and it was true last year for Alara block before Zendikar hit. When new block comes, uncommons from the previous block go up in price. You have a lot of time to react, so there really is no excuse for wasting this opportunity.

Examples from recent time:
-Bloodbraid Elf - was selling at 0.5 tix before Zendikar only to raise to 3 tix after Zendikar.

How can we use this info?
-Wall of Omens - clearly the best uncommon from the Zendikar block, still easy to get at 0.5 tix. There's still a lot of time to hop on this train before it starts speeding into 2-3 tix territory.

Wizards announcements:
Be it new ban lists or format changes. The problem with this opportunity is that you need to be quick - the info is readily available on the mothership and you have to react faster than the bots. On the bright side, you can earn on both prices going up and down, as some bots are slower to react and will still buy for higher prices. I'm using MTGO Library for quick price comparisons - but I won't post a link here, as that site is linked to the CBS bot that got infamous as a scam. Norton lists that site as dangerous, so enter at your own risk.

Examples from recent time:
-new Extended staples - as Wizards announced the new Extended, staples from Lorwyn - Alara Standard went up in price, while the old Extended staples that were no longer in the format went down. There was very little time to react, as I've logged in several hours after the announcement and it was already too late.

How can we use this info?
There are two lessons here - if you want to profit from Wizards announcements, you need to react fast. Second - you need to diversify, as you never know when Wizards will come and demolish the value of your collection.

Rotation:
If you identify the new top deck for the changing format after the rotation, there's no way you won't profit. You need to know the format to estimate correctly.

Examples from recent time:
-Jund - the prices for all Jund cards stayed pretty low until the last moments of Lorwyn - Alara Standard, only to raise 50-70% within days after the rotation.

How can we use this info?
Know your format. Standard rotation happens once every year, and it's a shame to waste this opportunity. It's still to early for me to guess the correct top deck in the new Standard as the dust from M11 has not settled yet, but pay attention to the tournament results in the months to come, and analyze which decks will survive and which will perish.


These are all the profit opportunities I'm trying to seize. If you know any more, I'm eager to learn about them. I'll write more about each of these opportunities in the future.


The recommendations page holds my current advices for profitable buys and sells. I will update it regularly, as right now there are only 2 cards on the buy list.

The basics - Opportunities, Part 1

The key to success in MTGO trading is proper evaluation of card values and identifying opportunities for profit. Card value comes from supply and demand. Supply is controlled by Wizards, and comes from 2 sources - MTGO store (less important) and limited queues (more important). Demand in MTGO is based on popularity of a given card in tournament winning decks (netdeck is king!) and casual appeal (much less important). The source of each opportunity is information. Each of the opportunity types described below differs in terms of it's impact and your speed of reaction needed to seize the opportunity. Information will allow you to project the future supply (very easy) and demand (not so much) of some cards.

New sets:
With new sets come new cards, and with new cards new interactions, and new interactions create new decks. This will highly affect the demand of cards in those decks. You will have a lot of time for reaction, because it is not easy to properly evaluate the impact of the new cards.

Examples from recent time:
-Dark Depths - went from 3 tix to 15 tix within a week of spoiling Vampire Hexmage.
-Scapeshift - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix within a week of spoiling Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
-Knight of the Reliquary - went from 0.4 tix to 2 tix within days of spoiling Zendikar's "land matters" theme and then to 5 tix in the following days after spoiling enemy fetches

How can we use this info?
-Lodestone Golem - this one is already highly speculated, as it rose from 0.5 tix to 2 tix after Steel Overseer got spoiled and Scars of Mirrodin block is rumoured to be artifact heavy, but there still might be value here, as the effect is pretty powerful. It is a bit risky now, though.

New decks:
As I've said, netdeck is king. When a new deck appears on a major tournament, cards that are used in the deck and were not used before shoot up in price. Your time for reaction will be limited to 2-3 days usually.

Examples from recent time:
-Avenger of Zendikar - went from 5 tix to 15 tix within a week of Turboland's first appearance.
-Extractor Demon - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix after the appearance of Standard Dredge lists in early Zendikar Standard

How can we use this info?
Read forums. I read MTGSalvation regularly, that's a nice source of info, especially the Standard portion of the forums.

Pre-release promos:
Pre-release mythics are dirt cheap within hours after they hit the market, and stay that way for some time. If the card itself is good, it will go up in price, no matter how ugly the art is.

Examples from recent time:
-Vampire Nocturnus - went from 1 tix to 7 tix after Zendikar hit and Vampires were a bit a semi-real deck.

How can we use this info?
Sun Titan - this one is a no-brainer. If you see promo Sun Titans at 1-2 tix, buy them. Sun Titans already saw play in the winning decks of French nationals, the card should be played.


Join me soon as I continue to describe the opportunities for making tix.