It's 2 weeks since M11 has been released on MTGO. Today I'd like to write about cards that I see as having potential to rise, and some cards that people on the forums are expecting to rise, but I don't agree with them.
Primeval Titan - the Baneslayer Angel of M11, the most expensive card of the set. It has dropped as low as $30 at one point, and kept gaining value since. Right now it's at $38, and I expect it to raise further to about $45 - $50 to meet it's paper price due to redemption. This DOESN'T mean it's a good investment though - if you're going to play the card, buy it now, but the prospect of 20-30% price increase is not enough to validate investing in it. Verdict: buy to play, otherwise pass.
Grave Titan - the best Titan, as claimed by Luis Scott-Vargas among others, is the third most expensive card in the set at $9. Right now it doesn't have a home in Standard, and I'm going to risk stating that it won't have one at least until Scars of Mirrodin. Even if it was to find a home, you will still have time between the deck appearance to the price spike to buy the card. Verdict: wait for a deck to appear.
Sun Titan - right now it's only home is UW control, and it's not enough to raise the price above the $4 it is currently selling at. As a side-note: if you bought those promo Titans at a reasonable price, and haven't sold them at $3, hold them. It's a long term investment, but it should pay off, especially when Alara rotates and the demand for Zen and M11 playables goes up. Verdict: pass.
Fauna Shaman - the most powerful rare of the set, it sees play in Naya, and it sells at about $4. The card has lots of potential, and it may appear in more decks, especially after the rotation. Verdict: wait for the rotation.
Phylactery Lich - the card gets quite a lot of hype, but until recently I wasn't much of it's fan. I viewed the Lich as a 2 for 1 against you waiting to happen, especially with an artifact-heavy set just around the corner artifact hate should become more powerful, making the Lich worse. All this changed with one information: a name of a card from Scars. Darksteel Axe. Darksteel is back, and with it, indestructible artifacts should also be back. If we get a playable, 2-mana indestructible artifact, and we don't have any targeted artifact exile effects, Phylactery Lich should gain value. Verdict: wait for Scars of Mirrodin spoiler season, buy if conditions are met.
Steel Overseer - again a highly hyped card, this one actually might be the Knight of the Reliquary of M11. Sunburst is confirmed to return in Scars of Mirrodin, and it may mean a powerful synergy for the Overseer. I'm already trying to buy them at $0.50, but I may start buying higher during the spoiler season. Verdict: buy when you see them low, pay attention during the spoiler season.
Knight Exemplar - yet another highly hyped card, Vampire Nocturnus this is not. The price of $1 is pure hype, and I wouldn't touch it. The reason is pretty simple, and you might have heard the phrase before: dies to removal! Verdict: sell.
Obstinate Baloth - the Great Sable Stag of M11, the ultimate Jund-hate. Once Jund dies to rotation, it will lose a lot of it's use, and will only be played as a sideboard card against RDW, provided that RDW is a deck after the rotation, and it doesn't bring Leyline of Punishment from the board. Verdict: sell.
Those are the cards I picked for evaluation. If you feel I've missed something, feel free to ask.
Showing posts with label Sun Titan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sun Titan. Show all posts
Aug 18, 2010
Jul 27, 2010
The basics - Opportunities, Part 1
The key to success in MTGO trading is proper evaluation of card values and identifying opportunities for profit. Card value comes from supply and demand. Supply is controlled by Wizards, and comes from 2 sources - MTGO store (less important) and limited queues (more important). Demand in MTGO is based on popularity of a given card in tournament winning decks (netdeck is king!) and casual appeal (much less important). The source of each opportunity is information. Each of the opportunity types described below differs in terms of it's impact and your speed of reaction needed to seize the opportunity. Information will allow you to project the future supply (very easy) and demand (not so much) of some cards.
New sets:
With new sets come new cards, and with new cards new interactions, and new interactions create new decks. This will highly affect the demand of cards in those decks. You will have a lot of time for reaction, because it is not easy to properly evaluate the impact of the new cards.
Examples from recent time:
-Dark Depths - went from 3 tix to 15 tix within a week of spoiling Vampire Hexmage.
-Scapeshift - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix within a week of spoiling Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
-Knight of the Reliquary - went from 0.4 tix to 2 tix within days of spoiling Zendikar's "land matters" theme and then to 5 tix in the following days after spoiling enemy fetches
How can we use this info?
-Lodestone Golem - this one is already highly speculated, as it rose from 0.5 tix to 2 tix after Steel Overseer got spoiled and Scars of Mirrodin block is rumoured to be artifact heavy, but there still might be value here, as the effect is pretty powerful. It is a bit risky now, though.
New decks:
As I've said, netdeck is king. When a new deck appears on a major tournament, cards that are used in the deck and were not used before shoot up in price. Your time for reaction will be limited to 2-3 days usually.
Examples from recent time:
-Avenger of Zendikar - went from 5 tix to 15 tix within a week of Turboland's first appearance.
-Extractor Demon - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix after the appearance of Standard Dredge lists in early Zendikar Standard
How can we use this info?
Read forums. I read MTGSalvation regularly, that's a nice source of info, especially the Standard portion of the forums.
Pre-release promos:
Pre-release mythics are dirt cheap within hours after they hit the market, and stay that way for some time. If the card itself is good, it will go up in price, no matter how ugly the art is.
Examples from recent time:
-Vampire Nocturnus - went from 1 tix to 7 tix after Zendikar hit and Vampires were a bit a semi-real deck.
How can we use this info?
Sun Titan - this one is a no-brainer. If you see promo Sun Titans at 1-2 tix, buy them. Sun Titans already saw play in the winning decks of French nationals, the card should be played.
Join me soon as I continue to describe the opportunities for making tix.
New sets:
With new sets come new cards, and with new cards new interactions, and new interactions create new decks. This will highly affect the demand of cards in those decks. You will have a lot of time for reaction, because it is not easy to properly evaluate the impact of the new cards.
Examples from recent time:
-Dark Depths - went from 3 tix to 15 tix within a week of spoiling Vampire Hexmage.
-Scapeshift - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix within a week of spoiling Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
-Knight of the Reliquary - went from 0.4 tix to 2 tix within days of spoiling Zendikar's "land matters" theme and then to 5 tix in the following days after spoiling enemy fetches
How can we use this info?
-Lodestone Golem - this one is already highly speculated, as it rose from 0.5 tix to 2 tix after Steel Overseer got spoiled and Scars of Mirrodin block is rumoured to be artifact heavy, but there still might be value here, as the effect is pretty powerful. It is a bit risky now, though.
New decks:
As I've said, netdeck is king. When a new deck appears on a major tournament, cards that are used in the deck and were not used before shoot up in price. Your time for reaction will be limited to 2-3 days usually.
Examples from recent time:
-Avenger of Zendikar - went from 5 tix to 15 tix within a week of Turboland's first appearance.
-Extractor Demon - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix after the appearance of Standard Dredge lists in early Zendikar Standard
How can we use this info?
Read forums. I read MTGSalvation regularly, that's a nice source of info, especially the Standard portion of the forums.
Pre-release promos:
Pre-release mythics are dirt cheap within hours after they hit the market, and stay that way for some time. If the card itself is good, it will go up in price, no matter how ugly the art is.
Examples from recent time:
-Vampire Nocturnus - went from 1 tix to 7 tix after Zendikar hit and Vampires were a bit a semi-real deck.
How can we use this info?
Sun Titan - this one is a no-brainer. If you see promo Sun Titans at 1-2 tix, buy them. Sun Titans already saw play in the winning decks of French nationals, the card should be played.
Join me soon as I continue to describe the opportunities for making tix.
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