Jul 29, 2010
New deck - Pyromancer Ascension
There's a new deck in paper Standard based on Pyromancer Ascension that gets infinite turns with Time Warp and Call to Mind. You can check that on Building on a Budget article by Jacob van Lunen. Some cards from that deck aren't present online, but Pyromancer Ascension is already going up. Most bots are sold out on it, and the biggest bot networks sell it for 0.8 tix, but if you search you can find it cheaper. There's still room for going up when the missing cards for the deck are available tomorrow with the M11 Pre-release.
Jul 28, 2010
The basics - Opportunities, Part 2
Today I continue the topic of identifying profit opportunities.
Top uncommons:
All the uncommons from the currently printed/drafted block are very easy and don't go above 0.5 tix. This is true now for the Zendikar block, and it was true last year for Alara block before Zendikar hit. When new block comes, uncommons from the previous block go up in price. You have a lot of time to react, so there really is no excuse for wasting this opportunity.
Examples from recent time:
-Bloodbraid Elf - was selling at 0.5 tix before Zendikar only to raise to 3 tix after Zendikar.
How can we use this info?
-Wall of Omens - clearly the best uncommon from the Zendikar block, still easy to get at 0.5 tix. There's still a lot of time to hop on this train before it starts speeding into 2-3 tix territory.
Wizards announcements:
Be it new ban lists or format changes. The problem with this opportunity is that you need to be quick - the info is readily available on the mothership and you have to react faster than the bots. On the bright side, you can earn on both prices going up and down, as some bots are slower to react and will still buy for higher prices. I'm using MTGO Library for quick price comparisons - but I won't post a link here, as that site is linked to the CBS bot that got infamous as a scam. Norton lists that site as dangerous, so enter at your own risk.
Examples from recent time:
-new Extended staples - as Wizards announced the new Extended, staples from Lorwyn - Alara Standard went up in price, while the old Extended staples that were no longer in the format went down. There was very little time to react, as I've logged in several hours after the announcement and it was already too late.
How can we use this info?
There are two lessons here - if you want to profit from Wizards announcements, you need to react fast. Second - you need to diversify, as you never know when Wizards will come and demolish the value of your collection.
Rotation:
If you identify the new top deck for the changing format after the rotation, there's no way you won't profit. You need to know the format to estimate correctly.
Examples from recent time:
-Jund - the prices for all Jund cards stayed pretty low until the last moments of Lorwyn - Alara Standard, only to raise 50-70% within days after the rotation.
How can we use this info?
Know your format. Standard rotation happens once every year, and it's a shame to waste this opportunity. It's still to early for me to guess the correct top deck in the new Standard as the dust from M11 has not settled yet, but pay attention to the tournament results in the months to come, and analyze which decks will survive and which will perish.
These are all the profit opportunities I'm trying to seize. If you know any more, I'm eager to learn about them. I'll write more about each of these opportunities in the future.
The recommendations page holds my current advices for profitable buys and sells. I will update it regularly, as right now there are only 2 cards on the buy list.
Top uncommons:
All the uncommons from the currently printed/drafted block are very easy and don't go above 0.5 tix. This is true now for the Zendikar block, and it was true last year for Alara block before Zendikar hit. When new block comes, uncommons from the previous block go up in price. You have a lot of time to react, so there really is no excuse for wasting this opportunity.
Examples from recent time:
-Bloodbraid Elf - was selling at 0.5 tix before Zendikar only to raise to 3 tix after Zendikar.
How can we use this info?
-Wall of Omens - clearly the best uncommon from the Zendikar block, still easy to get at 0.5 tix. There's still a lot of time to hop on this train before it starts speeding into 2-3 tix territory.
Wizards announcements:
Be it new ban lists or format changes. The problem with this opportunity is that you need to be quick - the info is readily available on the mothership and you have to react faster than the bots. On the bright side, you can earn on both prices going up and down, as some bots are slower to react and will still buy for higher prices. I'm using MTGO Library for quick price comparisons - but I won't post a link here, as that site is linked to the CBS bot that got infamous as a scam. Norton lists that site as dangerous, so enter at your own risk.
Examples from recent time:
-new Extended staples - as Wizards announced the new Extended, staples from Lorwyn - Alara Standard went up in price, while the old Extended staples that were no longer in the format went down. There was very little time to react, as I've logged in several hours after the announcement and it was already too late.
How can we use this info?
There are two lessons here - if you want to profit from Wizards announcements, you need to react fast. Second - you need to diversify, as you never know when Wizards will come and demolish the value of your collection.
Rotation:
If you identify the new top deck for the changing format after the rotation, there's no way you won't profit. You need to know the format to estimate correctly.
Examples from recent time:
-Jund - the prices for all Jund cards stayed pretty low until the last moments of Lorwyn - Alara Standard, only to raise 50-70% within days after the rotation.
How can we use this info?
Know your format. Standard rotation happens once every year, and it's a shame to waste this opportunity. It's still to early for me to guess the correct top deck in the new Standard as the dust from M11 has not settled yet, but pay attention to the tournament results in the months to come, and analyze which decks will survive and which will perish.
These are all the profit opportunities I'm trying to seize. If you know any more, I'm eager to learn about them. I'll write more about each of these opportunities in the future.
The recommendations page holds my current advices for profitable buys and sells. I will update it regularly, as right now there are only 2 cards on the buy list.
Jul 27, 2010
The basics - Opportunities, Part 1
The key to success in MTGO trading is proper evaluation of card values and identifying opportunities for profit. Card value comes from supply and demand. Supply is controlled by Wizards, and comes from 2 sources - MTGO store (less important) and limited queues (more important). Demand in MTGO is based on popularity of a given card in tournament winning decks (netdeck is king!) and casual appeal (much less important). The source of each opportunity is information. Each of the opportunity types described below differs in terms of it's impact and your speed of reaction needed to seize the opportunity. Information will allow you to project the future supply (very easy) and demand (not so much) of some cards.
New sets:
With new sets come new cards, and with new cards new interactions, and new interactions create new decks. This will highly affect the demand of cards in those decks. You will have a lot of time for reaction, because it is not easy to properly evaluate the impact of the new cards.
Examples from recent time:
-Dark Depths - went from 3 tix to 15 tix within a week of spoiling Vampire Hexmage.
-Scapeshift - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix within a week of spoiling Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
-Knight of the Reliquary - went from 0.4 tix to 2 tix within days of spoiling Zendikar's "land matters" theme and then to 5 tix in the following days after spoiling enemy fetches
How can we use this info?
-Lodestone Golem - this one is already highly speculated, as it rose from 0.5 tix to 2 tix after Steel Overseer got spoiled and Scars of Mirrodin block is rumoured to be artifact heavy, but there still might be value here, as the effect is pretty powerful. It is a bit risky now, though.
New decks:
As I've said, netdeck is king. When a new deck appears on a major tournament, cards that are used in the deck and were not used before shoot up in price. Your time for reaction will be limited to 2-3 days usually.
Examples from recent time:
-Avenger of Zendikar - went from 5 tix to 15 tix within a week of Turboland's first appearance.
-Extractor Demon - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix after the appearance of Standard Dredge lists in early Zendikar Standard
How can we use this info?
Read forums. I read MTGSalvation regularly, that's a nice source of info, especially the Standard portion of the forums.
Pre-release promos:
Pre-release mythics are dirt cheap within hours after they hit the market, and stay that way for some time. If the card itself is good, it will go up in price, no matter how ugly the art is.
Examples from recent time:
-Vampire Nocturnus - went from 1 tix to 7 tix after Zendikar hit and Vampires were a bit a semi-real deck.
How can we use this info?
Sun Titan - this one is a no-brainer. If you see promo Sun Titans at 1-2 tix, buy them. Sun Titans already saw play in the winning decks of French nationals, the card should be played.
Join me soon as I continue to describe the opportunities for making tix.
New sets:
With new sets come new cards, and with new cards new interactions, and new interactions create new decks. This will highly affect the demand of cards in those decks. You will have a lot of time for reaction, because it is not easy to properly evaluate the impact of the new cards.
Examples from recent time:
-Dark Depths - went from 3 tix to 15 tix within a week of spoiling Vampire Hexmage.
-Scapeshift - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix within a week of spoiling Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
-Knight of the Reliquary - went from 0.4 tix to 2 tix within days of spoiling Zendikar's "land matters" theme and then to 5 tix in the following days after spoiling enemy fetches
How can we use this info?
-Lodestone Golem - this one is already highly speculated, as it rose from 0.5 tix to 2 tix after Steel Overseer got spoiled and Scars of Mirrodin block is rumoured to be artifact heavy, but there still might be value here, as the effect is pretty powerful. It is a bit risky now, though.
New decks:
As I've said, netdeck is king. When a new deck appears on a major tournament, cards that are used in the deck and were not used before shoot up in price. Your time for reaction will be limited to 2-3 days usually.
Examples from recent time:
-Avenger of Zendikar - went from 5 tix to 15 tix within a week of Turboland's first appearance.
-Extractor Demon - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix after the appearance of Standard Dredge lists in early Zendikar Standard
How can we use this info?
Read forums. I read MTGSalvation regularly, that's a nice source of info, especially the Standard portion of the forums.
Pre-release promos:
Pre-release mythics are dirt cheap within hours after they hit the market, and stay that way for some time. If the card itself is good, it will go up in price, no matter how ugly the art is.
Examples from recent time:
-Vampire Nocturnus - went from 1 tix to 7 tix after Zendikar hit and Vampires were a bit a semi-real deck.
How can we use this info?
Sun Titan - this one is a no-brainer. If you see promo Sun Titans at 1-2 tix, buy them. Sun Titans already saw play in the winning decks of French nationals, the card should be played.
Join me soon as I continue to describe the opportunities for making tix.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)