Preparing for rotation

I planned to write something entirely different in this entry: how the meta for the upcoming Standard is going to be defined by three cards, and how we won't be seeing a single deck to beat similar to Jund from one year ago. If you're reading some pre-rotation stuff, you might have read it already. That was the plan. The thing is - this is simply not true.
When Zendikar became legal, there was one question you had to answer when designing a new deck: How do I beat Jund? And it wasn't an easy question. The beginning of this Standard will have a similar question begging answer: How do I beat Primeval Titan? The M11 mythic was already showing success before the rotation - just look at MTGO events, and you will see it everywhere. It's even worse in the 2-man queues, as some 30% decks being played are Primeval Titan builds. The percentage will grow when we get Scars of Mirrodin - the decks lose very little, and gain a nice tool to fight unfavoured matchups.

There are 2 Primeval Titan builds - Valakut Titan and Mono Green Eldrazi. If haven't been playing Magic in the last months, here's a quick look at both of them:

Valakut Titan by Jorlain72, 6th place Standard Premier #1641449 on 10/02/2010

Main Deck

3 Evolving Wilds

5 Forest

11 Mountain

4 Terramorphic Expanse

4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

2 Avenger of Zendikar

1 Inferno Titan

2 Oracle of Mul Daya

4 Primeval Titan

3 Cultivate

4 Explore

4 Harrow

3 Khalni Heart Expedition

3 Lightning Bolt

4 Rampant Growth

3 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 Back to Nature

4 Goblin Ruinblaster

1 Lavaball Trap

1 Naturalize

3 Pyroclasm

2 Ricochet Trap

Mono G Eldrazi by Marcin Karolczak,

4-0 in Standard Daily #1641401 on 10/03/2010

Main Deck

4 Eldrazi Temple

1 Eye of Ugin

12 Forest

4 Khalni Garden

1 Mystifying Maze

4 Tectonic Edge

1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

4 Joraga Treespeaker

1 Kozilek, Butcher of Truth

4 Overgrown Battlement

4 Primeval Titan

3 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre

1 All Is Dust

3 Cultivate

3 Everflowing Chalice

3 Explore

4 Rampant Growth

4 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 All Is Dust

2 Fog

3 Hornet Sting

2 Master of the Wild Hunt

4 Obstinate Baloth

Both these decks are powerful, easy to play, and lose very little to rotation. Does it remind you something? Yup, Jund. They will be everywhere. In 2-man queues, expect them to exceed 50% of all decks played, similar to how Jund was in the first days of Alara-Zendikar Standard.

What does all this have to do with investing? First of all, I'm not that sure now that Wall of Omens was such a good investment. It doesn't do anything against Primeval Titan decks, so my hopes of it going up to 3 tix soon are slim. I will keep the ones I've already bought, but I won't buy any more. Second - I've mentioned a new tool for Primeval Titan build that helps against unfavoured matchups. The matchups I had in mind were aggro decks, especially RDW - and the tool is Wurmcoil Engine. And here comes my recommendation - buy Wurmcoil Engine promos. I know I've recommended buying Sun Titan promos, and it wasn't that good yet, but I feel Wurmcoil Engine is a better buy. It is colorless, so it fits a lot of decks, and it goes straight into the dominant decks of the coming meta.

As for Primeval Titan itself - it will also go up, but it's already quite high at 27 tix. I can't see it going above 50 tix, and that is already being pretty optimistic. You will make some profit, but it won't be that much. I have a Valakut build that I am going to sell after the rotation - and that's all the investing in Primeval Titan I'm going to do.

M11 Investment Analysis

It's 2 weeks since M11 has been released on MTGO. Today I'd like to write about cards that I see as having potential to rise, and some cards that people on the forums are expecting to rise, but I don't agree with them.

Primeval Titan - the Baneslayer Angel of M11, the most expensive card of the set. It has dropped as low as $30 at one point, and kept gaining value since. Right now it's at $38, and I expect it to raise further to about $45 - $50 to meet it's paper price due to redemption. This DOESN'T mean it's a good investment though - if you're going to play the card, buy it now, but the prospect of 20-30% price increase is not enough to validate investing in it. Verdict: buy to play, otherwise pass.
Grave Titan - the best Titan, as claimed by Luis Scott-Vargas among others, is the third most expensive card in the set at $9. Right now it doesn't have a home in Standard, and I'm going to risk stating that it won't have one at least until Scars of Mirrodin. Even if it was to find a home, you will still have time between the deck appearance to the price spike to buy the card. Verdict: wait for a deck to appear.
Sun Titan - right now it's only home is UW control, and it's not enough to raise the price above the $4 it is currently selling at. As a side-note: if you bought those promo Titans at a reasonable price, and haven't sold them at $3, hold them. It's a long term investment, but it should pay off, especially when Alara rotates and the demand for Zen and M11 playables goes up. Verdict: pass.
Fauna Shaman - the most powerful rare of the set, it sees play in Naya, and it sells at about $4. The card has lots of potential, and it may appear in more decks, especially after the rotation. Verdict: wait for the rotation.
Phylactery Lich - the card gets quite a lot of hype, but until recently I wasn't much of it's fan. I viewed the Lich as a 2 for 1 against you waiting to happen, especially with an artifact-heavy set just around the corner artifact hate should become more powerful, making the Lich worse. All this changed with one information: a name of a card from Scars. Darksteel Axe. Darksteel is back, and with it, indestructible artifacts should also be back. If we get a playable, 2-mana indestructible artifact, and we don't have any targeted artifact exile effects, Phylactery Lich should gain value. Verdict: wait for Scars of Mirrodin spoiler season, buy if conditions are met.
Steel Overseer - again a highly hyped card, this one actually might be the Knight of the Reliquary of M11. Sunburst is confirmed to return in Scars of Mirrodin, and it may mean a powerful synergy for the Overseer. I'm already trying to buy them at $0.50, but I may start buying higher during the spoiler season. Verdict: buy when you see them low, pay attention during the spoiler season.
Knight Exemplar - yet another highly hyped card, Vampire Nocturnus this is not. The price of $1 is pure hype, and I wouldn't touch it. The reason is pretty simple, and you might have heard the phrase before: dies to removal! Verdict: sell.
Obstinate Baloth - the Great Sable Stag of M11, the ultimate Jund-hate. Once Jund dies to rotation, it will lose a lot of it's use, and will only be played as a sideboard card against RDW, provided that RDW is a deck after the rotation, and it doesn't bring Leyline of Punishment from the board. Verdict: sell.

Those are the cards I picked for evaluation. If you feel I've missed something, feel free to ask.