M11 Investment Analysis

It's 2 weeks since M11 has been released on MTGO. Today I'd like to write about cards that I see as having potential to rise, and some cards that people on the forums are expecting to rise, but I don't agree with them.

Primeval Titan - the Baneslayer Angel of M11, the most expensive card of the set. It has dropped as low as $30 at one point, and kept gaining value since. Right now it's at $38, and I expect it to raise further to about $45 - $50 to meet it's paper price due to redemption. This DOESN'T mean it's a good investment though - if you're going to play the card, buy it now, but the prospect of 20-30% price increase is not enough to validate investing in it. Verdict: buy to play, otherwise pass.
Grave Titan - the best Titan, as claimed by Luis Scott-Vargas among others, is the third most expensive card in the set at $9. Right now it doesn't have a home in Standard, and I'm going to risk stating that it won't have one at least until Scars of Mirrodin. Even if it was to find a home, you will still have time between the deck appearance to the price spike to buy the card. Verdict: wait for a deck to appear.
Sun Titan - right now it's only home is UW control, and it's not enough to raise the price above the $4 it is currently selling at. As a side-note: if you bought those promo Titans at a reasonable price, and haven't sold them at $3, hold them. It's a long term investment, but it should pay off, especially when Alara rotates and the demand for Zen and M11 playables goes up. Verdict: pass.
Fauna Shaman - the most powerful rare of the set, it sees play in Naya, and it sells at about $4. The card has lots of potential, and it may appear in more decks, especially after the rotation. Verdict: wait for the rotation.
Phylactery Lich - the card gets quite a lot of hype, but until recently I wasn't much of it's fan. I viewed the Lich as a 2 for 1 against you waiting to happen, especially with an artifact-heavy set just around the corner artifact hate should become more powerful, making the Lich worse. All this changed with one information: a name of a card from Scars. Darksteel Axe. Darksteel is back, and with it, indestructible artifacts should also be back. If we get a playable, 2-mana indestructible artifact, and we don't have any targeted artifact exile effects, Phylactery Lich should gain value. Verdict: wait for Scars of Mirrodin spoiler season, buy if conditions are met.
Steel Overseer - again a highly hyped card, this one actually might be the Knight of the Reliquary of M11. Sunburst is confirmed to return in Scars of Mirrodin, and it may mean a powerful synergy for the Overseer. I'm already trying to buy them at $0.50, but I may start buying higher during the spoiler season. Verdict: buy when you see them low, pay attention during the spoiler season.
Knight Exemplar - yet another highly hyped card, Vampire Nocturnus this is not. The price of $1 is pure hype, and I wouldn't touch it. The reason is pretty simple, and you might have heard the phrase before: dies to removal! Verdict: sell.
Obstinate Baloth - the Great Sable Stag of M11, the ultimate Jund-hate. Once Jund dies to rotation, it will lose a lot of it's use, and will only be played as a sideboard card against RDW, provided that RDW is a deck after the rotation, and it doesn't bring Leyline of Punishment from the board. Verdict: sell.

Those are the cards I picked for evaluation. If you feel I've missed something, feel free to ask.