1000 Tix Challenge - part 7

Starting today I'm going to keep track of spoiled cards from Mirrodin Besieged and predict they're impact on MTGO prices. Spoiler seasons are probably the best sources of profit opportunities, so let's try not to waste any of them.


...I've started writing this post and I took a glance at MTGSalvation forums. And you know what I found there? The friggin' Blightsteel Colussus! An 11/11 indestructible artifact creature with infect and trample. Yup, it kills in 1 hit! And you know what followed? This:



154 pieces of Shape Anew for 14 tix. This monstrosity just has to make the arti-Polymorph playable.

I won't waste your time describing anything else in the spoiler - as nothing comes close when it comes to expected profit. Buy ASAP!

1000 Tix Challenge - part 6

I haven't felt like Magic for the last month or so. There was one buy I did when Mirran and Phyrexian Crusader were spoiled, and I was to lazy to blog about it:

16 Knight Exemplars bought at 0.25.

Yes, shame on me for not letting you know. This is how these Exemplars look today:

Sold for 2 tix each (with 1 bonus ticket from selling 4 Exemplars and 3 Thieves for 9).

Spoiler season for Besieged starts tomorrow and it will only last two weeks, so it's a good idea to have some tickets ready.

And now for something completely different

The title may be a bit misleading, as this post is a follow-up on the last one. But it IS different - this will be my first take on deck-tech. I was planning to do a different post, but after playing 50 2-man queues with the GW Quest I just have to get this out of my system.

As I've said, I've had 50 matches in the 2-mans, and I really like how the deck plays. I scored a 32-18 record, which I don't think shows how good the final version of the deck is. I have started with the following list:

An ancient GW Quest lits (kids, don't try this at home)

Main deck

5 Forest

8 Plains

4 Razorverge Thicket

4 Sunpetal Grove

2 Stirring Wildwood

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Glint Hawk

4 Birds of Paradise

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Squadron Hawk

1 Kor Outfitter

1 Stoneforge Mystic

4 Vengevine

4 Quest for the Holy Relic

2 Argentum Armor

1 Sword of Body and Mind

Sideboard

1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

3 Devout Lightcaster

4 Kor Firewalker

4 Obstinate Baloth

3 Kor Sanctifiers

I've played a total of 4 matches with the above list (2-2 record), and I already knew I hated Birds of Paradise. The birds quickly became 3 Kor Skyfishers and 1 Basilisk Collar. I've played some 13 matches with those changes, and was delighted. I produces a 11-2 record, which was really impressive. Then came a streak of worse results, which led to changes in the sideboard (2 Baloths and 2 Sanctifiers out, 4 Leonin Arbiters in). With a 16-8 record came the server maintenance, and with it - Gold queues. I wouldn't be myself if I didn't try to seize this opportunity of making some quick tix so I jumped in. The result? A 1-4 start and 31 tix lost in 1 day. Playing the last 4 games after midnight while being really tired is some excuse, but I went back to the lab for some changes. And here's the final list:

GW Quest 2.0 (with Tchoob's seal of approval)

Main deck

5 Forest

8 Plains

4 Razorverge Thicket

4 Sunpetal Grove

2 Stirring Wildwood

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Glint Hawk

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Squadron Hawk

3 Kor Skyfisher

1 War Priest of Thune

1 Stoneforge Mystic

4 Vengevine

4 Quest for the Holy Relic

2 Argentum Armor

1 Sword of Body and Mind

1 Basilisk Collar

Sideboard

2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

4 Devout Lightcaster

4 Kor Firewalker

4 Leonin Arbiter

1 War Priest of Thune

With this list I've cruised through the Gold queues to a 13-4 record in the 2 following days, more that making up for my losses from day 1 each of those days. The main deck hasn't changed much, but the real changes are in the sideboard. But instead of explaining each card choice I'll describe the matchups, in order of number of matches played against each archetype.

Valakut

Result: 9-2

Yup, you've read that right. 9-2 against the most common, and as some people state the best archetype in Standard. It may look surprising as long as you don't look into the matchup. Game 1 both sides try to combo out as fast as possible, with the only interaction being some Lightning Bolts from across the board. As my GW Quest build is tuned to be as good a Quest deck as the mono White versions, it is on average a turn or two faster than Valakut. This is the good hand scenario. In the bad hand scenario they struggle with they're ramp while you don't have the Quest, but you do have the creatures and simply bash them unopposed. This makes Game 1 favourable. Of course if they get the ramp and you don't get Quest or 3 Vengevines in the grave early, you will lose.

Sideboard:

+4 Leonin Arbiter

+1 War Priest of Thune (assuming they pack Khalni Heart Expedition)

-4 Squadron Hawk

-1 Basilisk Collar

You may have been surprised to see Leonin Arbiter in the board, but let me tell you a secret - it changes each Valakut hand into a bad hand unless removed. It also hurts your deck, bet it's nothing compared to the handbrake it applies to Valakut. Of course they will have more removal after sideboard, but you have more things that absolutely need to be removed. The extra War Priest also helps to slow them down to a crawl.

BR Vampires

Result: 2-4

A great matchup is followed by a poor one. I haven't played against Vampires with the final list, but I don't expect it to do very good. Game 1 you absolutely have to combo out with Quest, so I hope you have mulliganed aggressively (which you really always should do with this deck). You won't be able to beat Kalastria Highborn + Viscera Seer + Bloodghast without Argentum Armor, or the most insane Vengevine draws, and I kept seeing that trio all the time against Vamps. And even the best Vengevine draws won't save you from Demon of Death's Gate turn 3.

Sideboard:

+4 Devout Lightcaster

+2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-4 Squadron Hawk

-1 War Priest of Thune

-1 Sword of Body and Mind

After sideboard life becomes a bit easier, as you have more outs to Highborn and Demon. If you live long enough to see 5 mana Devout Lightcaster + Kor Skyfisher can be a blowout. Linvala blocks Viscera Seer shenanigans. All in all I feel this is the hardest matchup for this deck.

UB Control

Result: 3-2

Game 1 is pretty ok. Both your plans are viable, and even if you only destroy one of they're permanents with Argentum Armor before the wearer gets Doom Bladed you still have gained value. Vengevines are simply silly good in this matchup. Both Basilisk Collar and Sword of Body and Mind are useful, as the first one can deal with Grave Titan and the second one with everything else.

Sideboard:

+4 Devout Lightcaster

+2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-4 Quest for the Holy Relic

-1 Argentum Armor

-1 War Priest of Thune

Yup, there it is. You take out all the Quests, and turn your deck into a Vengevine aggro deck. Linvala is used only as an evasive beater, nothing more. Your opponent has probably sided in all the Quest hate in the world, so you have an advantage. Lightcaster equipped with Sword of Body and Mind is amazing. It may actually be correct to ignore Jace and just go for the throat - provided of course you can get your hands on a pair of Vengevines. This matchup is definitely favoured.

Mono G Eldrazi

Result: 3-2

The second ramp deck is actually tougher than the first one. Game 1 is especially hard as you don't have any means to disrupt they're ramp. Quest nut draws will beat them, as they beat everything in Standard, but otherwise you need that turn 2 Fauna Shaman and multiple ways to bring back annihilated Vengevines in hand. I'd say that Game 1 is slightly favoured.

Sideboard:

+2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-1 War Priest of Thune

-1 Glint Hawk

Linvala helps as a lot of they're ramp is creature based, and she will fly over all blockers save Emrakul. Not much changes from Game 1 except they may have some artifact hate which they trade for speed - and that's fine with you as this can allow you to aggro them. Post sideboard games are still slightly favoured.

RUG Control

Result: 2-2

This one is better than it looks from the results - they're skewed by one match played at 1AM as the last of a 4-match tilt. Again, both your plans are good, and they're only hope against a resolved Sword of Body and Mind is either Inferno Titan or swarming you with Avenger of Zendikar. They don't have a lot of win conditions, so your Vengevines will have a lot of time to kill them. Game 1 is definitely favoured.

Sideboard:

+1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-1 War Priest of Thune

Post-sideboard games are a bit harder, as you're not getting anything useful. They will probably run more removal, but that's not going to stop your angry plants. I feel this match is favoured.

GW Quest

Result: 0-2

The mirror. If they are running Birds Game 1 is very slightly favoured, as you are the better Quest deck. You may have a small advantage because of War Priest of Thune mainboard. Short of that... well, it's a mirror.

Sideboard:

+1 War Priest of Thune

-1 Basilisk Collar

I have been on the receiving end of Fauna Shaman powered War Priests in both matches, and they hurt. Having one in the opening hand is a good sign.

WW Quest

Result: 2-0

Game 1 they have to get an early Argentum Armor, or they can't beat you. Really, that's all you can say here.

Sideboard:

+1 War Priest of Thune

-1 Basilisk Collar

Post-sideboard: see GW Quest. Keep in mind that they run Kor Outfitters, so don't take to long killing them, or they will equip that Armor even if you don't let them fire Quest. This matchup is definitely favoured.

UW Control

Result: 1-1

I don't have enough play experience against UW, but they run less instant speed removal than UB which makes Quest better. They also run Journey to Nowhere, which makes Vengevine worse than against UB.

Sideboard:

+1 War Priest of Thune

+2 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

-1 Basilisk Collar

-1 Memnite

-1 Glint Hawk

Linvala + Sword of Body and Mind gives you an out against Baneslayer Angel apart from Argentum Armor. I can't write anything more because as I've said, I haven't played a lot of UW.

These are all the archetypes with more than 1 match played. As you can see there are no Red decks here, but they are the reason for Kor Firewalkers in the sideboard. I replace Squadron Hawks with Firewalkers in RDW and Boros matchups.

I haven't seen any GW Quest list 4-0 a Daily Event yet, but I feel this list is more than capable of doing it. I really recommend you to try this list out, as turn 3 Argentum Armor is the most powerful thing you can do in Standard, and this deck doesn't fizzle when you can't get that Armor or they deal with it. Besides, by making the deck popular you help Fauna Shaman reach it's rightful price tag :).

PS: Now this is one long post...

1000 Tix Challenge - part 5

There was nothing going on here for some time, 'cause I've taken a two week break from Magic. Just before the break I've been playing around with Argentum Quest deck. I'll post an example deck for the sake of it, but I'm sure you're familiar with it.

Argentum Quest by Smang, 3-1 in Standard Daily #1783864 on 11/19/2010

Main Deck

22 Plains

4 Glint Hawk

4 Kor Duelist

3 Kor Outfitter

4 Kor Skyfisher

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Squadron Hawk

3 Stoneforge Mystic

2 Argentum Armor

4 Quest for the Holy Relic

2 Sword of Body and Mind

Sideboard

4 Devout Lightcaster

4 Kor Firewalker

3 Leonin Arbiter

4 Revoke Existence

The main plan is to get an early Quest for the Holy Relic followed by a swarm of creatures, which leads to Argentum Armor entering play on turn 3. This is all nice, but I hate the deck's plan B - attacking with dorks and bears is not that great, unless your opponent folds to Sword of Body and Mind. I've been trying to find a solid plan B before the break by adding what's left of Soul Sisters deck. Turns out that while Ajani's Pridemate is still Tarmogoyf even without Soul Warden, Serra Ascendant is no longer the 1-mana Baneslayer Angel. The deck wasn't good enough for my tastes.

After I came back to MtGO I've stumbled upon an article by Josh Silvestri posted on Channel Fireball. The addition of Vengevine seemed like a great idea - after all, both Vengevine and Quest for the Holy Relic require the same conditions to activate. I bought some angry vines and tested the deck in the 2-man queues. While I liked the deck in general, there were some cards that I felt didn't fit. While Molten-Tail Masticore is a great card, it was too slow for my tasted - 4 4-drop spots were already taken by VV, and the deck wasn't aggressive enough. With Masticores gone, the deck didn't need that much mana - and that invalidated the usage of Birds of Paradise. What did I put in? Well, look at the list below:

Main deck

5 Forest

8 Plains

4 Razorverge Thicket

4 Sunpetal Grove

2 Stirring Wildwood

4 Memnite

4 Ornithopter

4 Glint Hawk

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Squadron Hawk

3 Kor Skyfisher

1 Kor Outfitter

1 Stoneforge Mystic

4 Vengevine

4 Quest for the Holy Relic

2 Argentum Armor

1 Sword of Body and Mind

1 Basilisk Collar

Sideboard

1 Linvala, Keeper of Silence

3 Devout Lightcaster

4 Kor Firewalker

4 Obstinate Baloth

3 Kor Sanctifiers

This deck has all the things you need to make Quest work - 8 0-drops, Glint Hawks, Squadron Hawks and Kor Skyfishers. This makes it nearly as good at getting Argentum Armor on the battlefield as the original deck (nearly - sometimes you won't have any white mana in your opening hand), while plan B is vastly better. The sideboard is not set in stone - feel free to suggest changes. I recommend this deck to anyone who wants to play aggro with a combo twist.

And this leads us to the point of this post: my new Buy recommendation. I've waited with buying this card long enough, but I think that's it:

I don't think that anyone's surprised. In my opinion Fauna Shaman has been underpriced for a long time. It's an awesome card and it's available for a mere 2.25 tix. The deck I've described is already seeing 3-1 results with Birds in it, and I think that the birdless version is superior.

You may also notice that I've sold some Bala Ged Thieves - that was before my break, and I got 3 tix from 16 Thieves. I should be able to sell the rest for 2 tix now, which would be 1 ticket of profit. Hardly worth the time spent, but things like this happen.

Since this post is already quite long by my standards, I'll end it here. Stay tuned for a little summary of my past recommendations soon.

1000 Tix Challenge - part 4

Mindbreak Trap has gone up - but not as much as I thought. Even though Cardbot is selling it at 4.50, the best you can sell it is 2.80 each at foggybot. I can't see it going any higher. I have already sold mine, and I recommend you do the same.

I've sold 8 Mindbreak Traps for a total of 25 tix. But as you can see, there are some new cards in my collection: 31 Bala Ged Thieves. And the reason for this is another Building on a Budget article by Jacob van Lunen. True story: I login on my main MTGO account, enter Tournament Practice and what is the first deck I face? Yup, WB Allies, exactly as described in the article :) I'd probably buy more if I wasn't that sleepy. I highly recommend buying some Bala Ged Thieves.

1000 Tix Challenge - part 3

Playing control against Primeval Titan decks can be really annoying, as using counters is dangerous - you can always fall into Summoning Trap that will ruin your day. That was one of the main reasons why I thought Primeval Titan is going to dominate the early new Standard meta. And it did - it was everywhere in States. Is there no hope for permission strategies in Standard? Well, let's look at the winner from California:

UB Control by i-never-smile, 1st place in CA States

Main Deck

4 Swamp

7 Island

4 Tectonic Edge

4 Creeping Tar Pit

4 Darkslick Shores

2 Drowned Catacomb

4 Mana Leak

2 Negate

2 Cancel

2 Stoic Rebuttal

3 Mindbreak Trap

3 Inquisition of Kozilek

4 Doom Blade

2 Into the Roil

3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

2 Sphinx of Jwar Isle

4 Preordain

4 Jace's Ingenuity

Sideboard

2 Sign in Blood

2 Smother

2 Disfigure

3 Flashfreeze

2 Duress

2 Grave Titan

2 Consume the Meek

Frankly, I love this list. It seems tuned to kick some serious Primeval butt. First of all - the finisher of choice, Sphinx of Jwar Isle. It's unkillable for any Primeval Titan deck. Second - and this one is a stroke of genius - Mindbreak Trap. Here is your answer to Summoning Trap - not only it avoids triggering it's trap condition, but also helps against countered threat into countered trap into trap chains that are nigh-on unbeatable otherwise. And you know where this one leads:

Yup, that's 8 Mindbreak Traps bought for 16 ticks. You can get them easily for 2.25 pretty much everywhere. Once it catches on, it should rise to about 6 tix.

Preparing for rotation

I planned to write something entirely different in this entry: how the meta for the upcoming Standard is going to be defined by three cards, and how we won't be seeing a single deck to beat similar to Jund from one year ago. If you're reading some pre-rotation stuff, you might have read it already. That was the plan. The thing is - this is simply not true.
When Zendikar became legal, there was one question you had to answer when designing a new deck: How do I beat Jund? And it wasn't an easy question. The beginning of this Standard will have a similar question begging answer: How do I beat Primeval Titan? The M11 mythic was already showing success before the rotation - just look at MTGO events, and you will see it everywhere. It's even worse in the 2-man queues, as some 30% decks being played are Primeval Titan builds. The percentage will grow when we get Scars of Mirrodin - the decks lose very little, and gain a nice tool to fight unfavoured matchups.

There are 2 Primeval Titan builds - Valakut Titan and Mono Green Eldrazi. If haven't been playing Magic in the last months, here's a quick look at both of them:

Valakut Titan by Jorlain72, 6th place Standard Premier #1641449 on 10/02/2010

Main Deck

3 Evolving Wilds

5 Forest

11 Mountain

4 Terramorphic Expanse

4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

2 Avenger of Zendikar

1 Inferno Titan

2 Oracle of Mul Daya

4 Primeval Titan

3 Cultivate

4 Explore

4 Harrow

3 Khalni Heart Expedition

3 Lightning Bolt

4 Rampant Growth

3 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 Back to Nature

4 Goblin Ruinblaster

1 Lavaball Trap

1 Naturalize

3 Pyroclasm

2 Ricochet Trap

Mono G Eldrazi by Marcin Karolczak,

4-0 in Standard Daily #1641401 on 10/03/2010

Main Deck

4 Eldrazi Temple

1 Eye of Ugin

12 Forest

4 Khalni Garden

1 Mystifying Maze

4 Tectonic Edge

1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

4 Joraga Treespeaker

1 Kozilek, Butcher of Truth

4 Overgrown Battlement

4 Primeval Titan

3 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre

1 All Is Dust

3 Cultivate

3 Everflowing Chalice

3 Explore

4 Rampant Growth

4 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 All Is Dust

2 Fog

3 Hornet Sting

2 Master of the Wild Hunt

4 Obstinate Baloth

Both these decks are powerful, easy to play, and lose very little to rotation. Does it remind you something? Yup, Jund. They will be everywhere. In 2-man queues, expect them to exceed 50% of all decks played, similar to how Jund was in the first days of Alara-Zendikar Standard.

What does all this have to do with investing? First of all, I'm not that sure now that Wall of Omens was such a good investment. It doesn't do anything against Primeval Titan decks, so my hopes of it going up to 3 tix soon are slim. I will keep the ones I've already bought, but I won't buy any more. Second - I've mentioned a new tool for Primeval Titan build that helps against unfavoured matchups. The matchups I had in mind were aggro decks, especially RDW - and the tool is Wurmcoil Engine. And here comes my recommendation - buy Wurmcoil Engine promos. I know I've recommended buying Sun Titan promos, and it wasn't that good yet, but I feel Wurmcoil Engine is a better buy. It is colorless, so it fits a lot of decks, and it goes straight into the dominant decks of the coming meta.

As for Primeval Titan itself - it will also go up, but it's already quite high at 27 tix. I can't see it going above 50 tix, and that is already being pretty optimistic. You will make some profit, but it won't be that much. I have a Valakut build that I am going to sell after the rotation - and that's all the investing in Primeval Titan I'm going to do.