Preparing for rotation

I planned to write something entirely different in this entry: how the meta for the upcoming Standard is going to be defined by three cards, and how we won't be seeing a single deck to beat similar to Jund from one year ago. If you're reading some pre-rotation stuff, you might have read it already. That was the plan. The thing is - this is simply not true.
When Zendikar became legal, there was one question you had to answer when designing a new deck: How do I beat Jund? And it wasn't an easy question. The beginning of this Standard will have a similar question begging answer: How do I beat Primeval Titan? The M11 mythic was already showing success before the rotation - just look at MTGO events, and you will see it everywhere. It's even worse in the 2-man queues, as some 30% decks being played are Primeval Titan builds. The percentage will grow when we get Scars of Mirrodin - the decks lose very little, and gain a nice tool to fight unfavoured matchups.

There are 2 Primeval Titan builds - Valakut Titan and Mono Green Eldrazi. If haven't been playing Magic in the last months, here's a quick look at both of them:

Valakut Titan by Jorlain72, 6th place Standard Premier #1641449 on 10/02/2010

Main Deck

3 Evolving Wilds

5 Forest

11 Mountain

4 Terramorphic Expanse

4 Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

2 Avenger of Zendikar

1 Inferno Titan

2 Oracle of Mul Daya

4 Primeval Titan

3 Cultivate

4 Explore

4 Harrow

3 Khalni Heart Expedition

3 Lightning Bolt

4 Rampant Growth

3 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 Back to Nature

4 Goblin Ruinblaster

1 Lavaball Trap

1 Naturalize

3 Pyroclasm

2 Ricochet Trap

Mono G Eldrazi by Marcin Karolczak,

4-0 in Standard Daily #1641401 on 10/03/2010

Main Deck

4 Eldrazi Temple

1 Eye of Ugin

12 Forest

4 Khalni Garden

1 Mystifying Maze

4 Tectonic Edge

1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

4 Joraga Treespeaker

1 Kozilek, Butcher of Truth

4 Overgrown Battlement

4 Primeval Titan

3 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre

1 All Is Dust

3 Cultivate

3 Everflowing Chalice

3 Explore

4 Rampant Growth

4 Summoning Trap

Sideboard

2 Acidic Slime

2 All Is Dust

2 Fog

3 Hornet Sting

2 Master of the Wild Hunt

4 Obstinate Baloth

Both these decks are powerful, easy to play, and lose very little to rotation. Does it remind you something? Yup, Jund. They will be everywhere. In 2-man queues, expect them to exceed 50% of all decks played, similar to how Jund was in the first days of Alara-Zendikar Standard.

What does all this have to do with investing? First of all, I'm not that sure now that Wall of Omens was such a good investment. It doesn't do anything against Primeval Titan decks, so my hopes of it going up to 3 tix soon are slim. I will keep the ones I've already bought, but I won't buy any more. Second - I've mentioned a new tool for Primeval Titan build that helps against unfavoured matchups. The matchups I had in mind were aggro decks, especially RDW - and the tool is Wurmcoil Engine. And here comes my recommendation - buy Wurmcoil Engine promos. I know I've recommended buying Sun Titan promos, and it wasn't that good yet, but I feel Wurmcoil Engine is a better buy. It is colorless, so it fits a lot of decks, and it goes straight into the dominant decks of the coming meta.

As for Primeval Titan itself - it will also go up, but it's already quite high at 27 tix. I can't see it going above 50 tix, and that is already being pretty optimistic. You will make some profit, but it won't be that much. I have a Valakut build that I am going to sell after the rotation - and that's all the investing in Primeval Titan I'm going to do.

1000 Tix Challenge - part 2

I've made my second buy - and it's pretty small. Take a look yourselves:



Yup, that's 3 Time Reversals you're seeing, bought for a total of 6 tix. I've been pondering buying them for some time now, and I have missed the low point of 1.75 tix. I've bought them 2 days ago, and bots are now buying for 2.25 each. I feel that Wizards are telegraphing a combo deck with Time Reversal using cards like Runeflare Trap and Molten Psyche. I don't have a list this time, and I can't honestly recommend buying - it's only a feeling, not a logical reason to buy. Let's see how this gamble works :)

1000 Tix Challenge - part 1

As I've written in my first post on this blog, new decks are great opportunities for profit. I've mentioned netdecking successful decks, but there is one more flavour to it - creating your own decks and mass-buying key parts of the deck. And this is what inspired my first buy of 1000 Tix Challenge. Introducing... Dredgeooze!

4 Misty Rainforest

4 Scalding Tarn

4 Verdant Catacombs

2 Drowned Catacomb

6 Forest

2 Island

2 Swamp

4 Birds of Paradise

4 Enclave Cryptologist

4 Hedron Crab

4 Lotus Cobra

4 Fauna Shaman

4 Renegade Doppelganger

4 Vengevine

4 Necrotic Ooze

4 Gigantomancer

This deck is a variation of Dredgevine that uses a new Scars of Mirrodin card - Necrotic Ooze. If you haven't seen it already, here it is:

Necrotic Ooze 2BB

Creature - Ooze

As long as Necrotic Ooze is on the battlefield, it has all activated abilities of all creature cards in all graveyards.

"To death all must go, and so in death lies ultimate power."

-Geth, Lord of the Vault

Illus. James Ryman #72/249
4/3

Begs to be broken, doesn't it? Well, here is my attempt to doing just that: Gigantomancer. Of course it has to find it's way into your graveyard, that's why I've decided to adopt the Dredgevine core. Ooze + Gigantomancer feels a lot like Sovereigns of Lost Alara + Eldrazi Conscription - turns your weenies into superheroes. There are some things you can change, like swapping Enclave Cryptologists for River Boas to make your Ooze even more awesome. Another consideration is the new Molten-Tail Masticore:

Molten-Tail Masticore 4

Artifact Creature - Masticore

At the beginning of your upkeep, sacrifice Molten-Tail Masticore unless you discard a card.

4, Exile a creature card from your graveyard: Molten-Tail Masticore deals 4 damage to target creature or player.

2: Regenerate Molten-Tail Masticore.

Illus. Whit Brachna #177/249
4/4

Whatever this deck turns into, I'm sure Ooze + Gigantomancer is going to be great. So sure, that I'm going to put my money on it.

Yup, that's 105 Gigantomancers you're seeing, all bought for 9 tix. I didn't record all the trades, as there were quite a lot of them, but I now have 0.35 tix credit at SharpBot. I can easily see Gigantomacer going for 2 tix once this deck hits. I recommend buying them while they're still cheap.

Cashing in on Steel Overseers

The more spoilers of Scars of Mirrodin I'm seeing, the less I'm confident that Steel Overseer is going to see play. It's best suited for artifact aggro decks and those will most probably be Myr decks. They will already run Myr Galvanizer and Tempered Steel as mass pump effects and I don't think Steel Overseer will find it's place there. And this means one thing - time to sell! Steel Overseer can be sold easily at 2.25 tix, which is a very good profit from the 0.60 tix it was when I recommended buying.

Someone asked me about Hoarding Dragon - I think it's useless. 5 mana for a 4/4 flying creature is not impressive these days and the tutor effect is unreliable - Unsummon, Journey to Nowhere and Condemn all mean the tutored artifact stays exiled forever.

1000 Tix Challenge - intro

Sometimes I find myself wondering: if I am as good at identifying profit opportunities as I think I am, why do I still have so few tix on my account? Sure, I have gone infinite in the sense that I don't have to pay for the game and my balance is more or less stable, even though I keep losing tix on new deck creations and failed drafts. I guess there are two reasons:
-I'm not focused enough. A few days ago I've seen the Mindslaver get spoiled mere minutes after it has gone public. I've checked the price to see it being available at 0.5 tix. I was sure it was going to go up, had 40 tix at hand, but decided against buying. Why? Because I felt sleepy. It wasn't even particularly late, but tiredness got the best of me. I woke up next day to see Mindslaver being bought at 2 tix. That was 20 minutes of sleep that cost me some 120 tix. It happens :)
-I spend quite a lot. New decks and limited are the main spendings. I'm not really competitive, but I tend to spend all my tix and none are left for investments.

A day after Mindslaver got spoiled my friend came up with an idea: "You should hold a challenge on your blog - start with 50 tix and get to 1000 as fast as you can." I must say I loved the idea. This is something to keep me focused, and if I keep track of tix earned, I won't be tempted to spend them. I created a new account, and here's it's current status:


50 tix, and some untradable stuff. I also have some 0.5 tix at one of the bot chains after selling stuff from the intro pack. And that's it. Current balance: 50 tix. Target: 1000 tix. 1900% profit. I feel like I can make it within a year. Wish me luck!

Kiss your phylactery goodbye

Phylactery Lich has gone up to 1.75 at major bots, and I feel that's enough. You may only get 1.25 tix when selling, which is 40% profit if you bought at 0.90, but I don't think you will get much more of this card. I don't believe there's a deck out there that is going to make Phylactery Lich a star - it's price boost is pure hype and it will die out soon. You can see it already when you search for the Lich on classifieds - nearly nobody is buying the card, and there are a lot of sell offers. This is a good time to get off the boat before it starts to sink. And it should sink soon.

Scars of Mirrodin - Phylactery Lich has a new friend

Or a new phylactery for that matter. I've written about this in M11 analysis - darksteel is making a return in Scars of Mirrodin in the form of Darksteel Axe. Now we know it's an indestructible Bonesplitter - and it looks tailored for the Lich. As I'm writing this Phylactery Lich can be bought at 0.9 tix and I expect it to raise to 2 tix in a few days time, and maybe further once more cards are spoiled.

While we are at SoM spoilers and price movements that they're causing - Steel Overseer is no longer a good buy, selling at 2 tix. I'd wait a bit with selling it as an artifact aggro deck is very likely to appear with Metalcraft being the new Affinity. Steel Overseer is going to be available in Elspeth vs Tezzeret, but I don't think it will have enough of an effect to make it buyable again.

Keep an eye on the spoilers and have some tix at hand - I know I sure will, and if I see any new opportunities you'll be able to read about them here.