The key to success in MTGO trading is proper evaluation of card values and identifying opportunities for profit. Card value comes from supply and demand. Supply is controlled by Wizards, and comes from 2 sources - MTGO store (less important) and limited queues (more important). Demand in MTGO is based on popularity of a given card in tournament winning decks (netdeck is king!) and casual appeal (much less important). The source of each opportunity is information. Each of the opportunity types described below differs in terms of it's impact and your speed of reaction needed to seize the opportunity. Information will allow you to project the future supply (very easy) and demand (not so much) of some cards.
New sets:
With new sets come new cards, and with new cards new interactions, and new interactions create new decks. This will highly affect the demand of cards in those decks. You will have a lot of time for reaction, because it is not easy to properly evaluate the impact of the new cards.
Examples from recent time:
-Dark Depths - went from 3 tix to 15 tix within a week of spoiling Vampire Hexmage.
-Scapeshift - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix within a week of spoiling Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
-Knight of the Reliquary - went from 0.4 tix to 2 tix within days of spoiling Zendikar's "land matters" theme and then to 5 tix in the following days after spoiling enemy fetches
How can we use this info?
-Lodestone Golem - this one is already highly speculated, as it rose from 0.5 tix to 2 tix after Steel Overseer got spoiled and Scars of Mirrodin block is rumoured to be artifact heavy, but there still might be value here, as the effect is pretty powerful. It is a bit risky now, though.
New decks:
As I've said, netdeck is king. When a new deck appears on a major tournament, cards that are used in the deck and were not used before shoot up in price. Your time for reaction will be limited to 2-3 days usually.
Examples from recent time:
-Avenger of Zendikar - went from 5 tix to 15 tix within a week of Turboland's first appearance.
-Extractor Demon - went from 0.1 tix to 2 tix after the appearance of Standard Dredge lists in early Zendikar Standard
How can we use this info?
Read forums. I read MTGSalvation regularly, that's a nice source of info, especially the Standard portion of the forums.
Pre-release promos:
Pre-release mythics are dirt cheap within hours after they hit the market, and stay that way for some time. If the card itself is good, it will go up in price, no matter how ugly the art is.
Examples from recent time:
-Vampire Nocturnus - went from 1 tix to 7 tix after Zendikar hit and Vampires were a bit a semi-real deck.
How can we use this info?
Sun Titan - this one is a no-brainer. If you see promo Sun Titans at 1-2 tix, buy them. Sun Titans already saw play in the winning decks of French nationals, the card should be played.
Join me soon as I continue to describe the opportunities for making tix.
No comments:
Post a Comment